FND Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FND - Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc.
$54.26
-0.44 (-0.80%)
▼
5d:
-7.36%
30d:
+2.3%
90d:
+12.06%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: FND shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: FND shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$80.09
Based on 7.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$49.73
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FND is currently trading at $54.26, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $54.42 to $59.61. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 24.6) is in line with its historical norms (26.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 53.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FND is showing support break momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $53.96. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: FND scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FND is showing support break momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $53.96. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: FND scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$54.42 -
$59.61
Company Quality Score
24/100
(STRONG SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($58.59)
- WARNING: Composite score 24/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$54.42 -
$59.61
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$53.96
Resistance Level
$62.09
Current Trend
Support Break
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.62
Wall Street Target
$58.59
(+8.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
53.4%
Profit Margin
4.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
24.6 vs 26.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$53.12
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$52.01
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$50.91
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 25→26)
$54.39
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.6, Growth: 11.6%)
$75.34
(+39%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 11.6%)
$61.42
(+13%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 11.6%)
$52.21
(-4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (25x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.81 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.04
Bull Case
$65.01
(+20%)
Analyst growth 8.0%, PE expands to 29.5
Base Case
$59.10
(+9%)
Market implied 8.0%, PE stable at 26.8
Bear Case
$37.20
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 24.6 to 26.3
Stabilization Target:
$57.97
(+6.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 6:30 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:30 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:30 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FND showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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