Floor & Decor (FND) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FND - Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc.
$47.34
0.47 (1.00%)
▲
5d:
-4.13%
30d:
-20.21%
90d:
-11.96%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: FND shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: FND shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$80.09
Based on 7.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$49.73
4.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FND is currently trading at $47.34, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $49.71 to $59.52. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 21.5) compared to its historical average (26.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 53.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FND is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $46.03. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 53/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $58.59 (+23.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FND is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $46.03. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 53/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $58.59 (+23.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$49.71 -
$59.52
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (53/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.8% below Wall St target ($58.59)
- WARNING: Composite score 53/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$49.71 -
$59.52
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$46.03
Resistance Level
$54.56
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.48
Wall Street Target
$58.59
(+23.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
53.4%
Profit Margin
4.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.5 vs 26.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$44.40
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$41.65
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$39.07
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→26)
$47.29
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.5, Growth: 11.6%)
$65.73
(+39%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 11.6%)
$61.73
(+30%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 11.6%)
$52.47
(+11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.90 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.14
Bull Case
$53.10
(+12%)
Analyst growth 3.0%, PE expands to 24.1
Base Case
$48.27
(+2%)
Market implied 3.0%, PE stable at 21.9
Bear Case
$31.87
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.5 to 26.0
Stabilization Target:
$57.31
(+21.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+21.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 8:50 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:50 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:50 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FND showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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