FND Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FND - Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc.
$54.95
-2.18 (-3.82%)
▼
5d:
-3.33%
30d:
+11.37%
90d:
+6.33%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
15d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FND shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FND shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$83.22
Based on 9.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$51.68
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FND is currently trading at $54.95, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $50.14 to $57.96. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 25.3) is in line with its historical norms (26.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FND is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $52.56. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FND is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $52.56. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$50.14 -
$57.96
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.9%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.8%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($54.32)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$50.14 -
$57.96
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$45.86
Resistance Level
$52.57
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
25.33
Wall Street Target
$54.32
(-1.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-18.2%
Profit Margin
4.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
25.3 vs 26.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$54.29
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$53.64
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$53.00
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 25→26)
$55.02
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 25.3, Growth: 14.0%)
$81.42
(+48%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 14.0%)
$70.01
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 14.0%)
$59.51
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (31x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (25x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 31.05 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.84
Bull Case
$74.09
(+35%)
Analyst growth 17.9%, PE expands to 34.2
Base Case
$67.35
(+23%)
Market implied 17.9%, PE stable at 31.1
Bear Case
$38.85
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 25.3 to 26.3
Stabilization Target:
$57.05
(+3.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 5:55 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:55 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:55 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FND showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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