Floor & Decor (FND) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FND - Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc.
$45.49
-0.54 (-1.17%)
▼
5d:
-3.34%
30d:
-5.13%
90d:
-19.97%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
25d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FND shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: FND shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$80.09
Based on 7.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$49.73
8.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FND is currently trading at $45.49, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $45.81 to $51.30. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 20.6) compared to its historical average (25.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 53.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FND is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $44.19. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: FND scores 64/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $58.36 (+28.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FND is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $44.19. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: FND scores 64/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $58.36 (+28.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$45.81 -
$51.30
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (64/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 28.3% below Wall St target ($58.36)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 22% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$45.81 -
$51.30
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$44.19
Resistance Level
$49.67
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.64
Wall Street Target
$58.36
(+28.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
53.4%
Profit Margin
4.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.6 vs 25.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$42.31
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$39.34
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$36.59
(-20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→26)
$45.56
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 11.6%)
$63.16
(+39%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 11.6%)
$62.43
(+37%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: 11.6%)
$53.07
(+17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.51 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.14
Bull Case
$52.15
(+15%)
Analyst growth 3.0%, PE expands to 23.7
Base Case
$47.41
(+4%)
Market implied 3.0%, PE stable at 21.5
Bear Case
$31.30
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.6 to 25.7
Stabilization Target:
$56.65
(+24.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+24.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 12:24 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:24 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:24 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FND showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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