FND Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FND - Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc.
$51.46
0.68 (1.34%)
▲
5d:
-3.14%
30d:
+6.28%
90d:
-1.74%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FND shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FND shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$83.22
Based on 9.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$51.68
0.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FND is currently trading at $51.46, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $46.77 to $52.25. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 23.7) is in line with its historical norms (26.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FND is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $52.56. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FND has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FND is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $52.56. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FND has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$46.77 -
$52.25
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($53.91)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$46.77 -
$52.25
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$45.86
Resistance Level
$52.57
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.72
Wall Street Target
$53.91
(+4.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-18.2%
Profit Margin
4.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
23.7 vs 26.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$49.71
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$48.02
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$46.39
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24→26)
$51.43
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.7, Growth: 14.0%)
$76.25
(+48%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 14.0%)
$70.01
(+36%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 14.0%)
$59.51
(+16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.21 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.84
Bull Case
$67.32
(+31%)
Analyst growth 17.9%, PE expands to 31.0
Base Case
$61.20
(+19%)
Market implied 17.9%, PE stable at 28.2
Bear Case
$35.30
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 23.7 to 26.3
Stabilization Target:
$57.05
(+10.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 2:02 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:02 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:02 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FND showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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