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Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$406.42
Based on 3.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$252.36
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.3x Exit PE.
Valuation Analysis: HD is currently trading at $327.73, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $286.56 to $309.19. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 21.8) is in line with its historical norms (22.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 4.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HD is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $327.92. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: HD scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $379.75 (+15.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$286.56 -
$309.19
Company Quality Score
28/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
26.2%
Protect Your Profits
HD is technically overbought (RSI 71). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
Home Depot is the world's largest home improvement specialty retailer, operating 2,353 warehouse-format stores offering more than 30,000 products in store and 1 million products online in the US, Canada, and Mexico. Its stores offer building materials, home improvement products, lawn and garden products, and decor products and provide various services, including home improvement installation services and tool and equipment rentals. The acquisition of Interline Brands in 2015 allowed Home Depot to enter the MRO business, which has been expanded through the tie-up with HD Supply (2020). The 2024 tie-up with SRS will help grow professional demand in roofing, pool, and landscaping projects, while the pending acquisition of GMS will lift building product sales.
