HD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HD - Home Depot, Inc.
$340.02
8.06 (2.43%)
▲
5d:
+1.17%
30d:
-5.0%
90d:
+4.98%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 18, 2026
14d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$415.54
Based on 3.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$258.02
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HD is currently trading at $340.02, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $332.86 to $348.62. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 22.1) is in line with its historical norms (22.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HD is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $349.43. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $370.34 (+11.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HD is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $349.43. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $370.34 (+11.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$332.86 -
$348.62
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($370.34)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$332.86 -
$348.62
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$323.05
Resistance Level
$349.43
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.05
Wall Street Target
$370.34
(+11.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-4.3%
Profit Margin
8.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.1 vs 22.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$328.64
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$325.35
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$322.10
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→23)
$332.99
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 3.8%)
$371.26
(+12%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 3.8%)
$348.97
(+5%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 3.8%)
$296.62
(-11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.69 | Current EPS (TTM): $14.07
Bull Case
$392.28
(+18%)
Analyst growth 7.0%, PE expands to 26.1
Base Case
$356.62
(+7%)
Market implied 7.0%, PE stable at 23.7
Bear Case
$226.68
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.1 to 22.8
Stabilization Target:
$343.19
(+3.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 4:39 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:39 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:39 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
6
Buys
4
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Lloyd Doggett
BUY
2026-03-26
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-20
Richard McCormick
BUY
2026-03-19
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