HD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HD - Home Depot, Inc.
$343.30
4.57 (1.35%)
▲
5d:
-4.08%
30d:
+6.84%
90d:
+1.1%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 10, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 18, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.2/10
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2 traders called HD this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.0% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.0% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$415.54
Based on 3.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$258.02
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HD is currently trading at $343.30, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $317.33 to $347.17. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 22.8) is in line with its historical norms (22.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HD is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $322.89. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HD is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $322.89. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$317.33 -
$347.17
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($370.34)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$317.33 -
$347.17
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$307.07
Resistance Level
$322.89
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.81
Wall Street Target
$370.34
(+7.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-4.3%
Profit Margin
8.4%
PE vs Historical
22.8 vs 22.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$343.30
(0%)
2-Year Target
$343.30
(0%)
3-Year Target
$343.30
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→23)
PE COMPRESSION
$343.19
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.8, Growth: 3.8%)
$383.94
(+12%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 3.8%)
$366.64
(+7%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 3.8%)
$311.65
(-9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.04 | Current EPS (TTM): $14.09
Bull Case
$398.05
(+16%)
Analyst growth 6.8%, PE expands to 26.4
Base Case
$361.86
(+5%)
Market implied 6.8%, PE stable at 24.0
Bear Case
$230.34
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 11, 2026 4:02 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:02 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:02 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
7
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Lloyd Doggett
BUY
2026-03-26
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-20
Richard McCormick
BUY
2026-03-19
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