GBX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GBX - The Greenbrier Companies, Inc.
$49.76
0.51 (1.04%)
▲
5d:
-1.03%
30d:
+4.67%
90d:
-0.56%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GBX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.2% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GBX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.2% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$88.10
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$54.70
9.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GBX is currently trading at $49.76, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $47.45 to $50.87. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 12.8) compared to its historical average (11.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.2% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GBX is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $48.77. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GBX is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $48.77. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$47.45 -
$50.87
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($45.33)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.2% growth with -31.6% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$47.45 -
$50.87
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$48.77
Resistance Level
$52.49
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.76
Wall Street Target
$45.33
(-8.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-31.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-67.7%
Profit Margin
4.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.2% premium
PE vs Historical
12.8 vs 11.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$51.35
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$53.00
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$54.69
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$49.72
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 28.6%)
$171.84
(+245%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.8, Growth: 28.6%)
$105.76
(+113%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.8, Growth: 28.6%)
$89.90
(+81%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.57 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.38
Bull Case
$62.51
(+26%)
Analyst growth 15.4%, PE expands to 16.0
Base Case
$56.83
(+14%)
Market implied 15.4%, PE stable at 14.6
Bear Case
$33.49
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 04, 2026 9:04 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:04 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:04 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GBX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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