Is UNP stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, UNP is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: UNP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of UNP stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for UNP to be between $290.77 and $301.40. The current price is $308.05.

What is the analyst price target for UNP?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for UNP is $329.25. This implies a potential upside of 8.3% from current levels.

UNP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

UNP - Union Pacific Corp.

RAILROADS, LINE-HAUL OPERATING

$308.05

4.08 (1.34%) ▲

5d: +4.89%

30d: +1.22%

90d: +16.05%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 22, 2026

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 6, 2026 at $293.13 · last confirmed Aug 19, 2026

Strength: 6.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: UNP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 8.4%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$366.94

Based on 6.2% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$227.84

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.2x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: UNP is currently trading at $308.05, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $290.77 to $301.40. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 21.5) compared to its historical average (19.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, UNP is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $308.29. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 42/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $290.77 - $301.40

Company Quality Score 43/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 47.1%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (42/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($329.25)
NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $290.77 - $301.40

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $290.34

Resistance Level $308.29

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Aug 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 21.47

Wall Street Target $329.25 (+8.3%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 11.5%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 6.6%

Profit Margin 28.8%

Valuation Premium vs History +3.8% premium

PE vs Historical 21.5 vs 19.2 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +3.8% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $315.52 (+4%)

2-Year Target $327.51 (+8%)

3-Year Target $339.96 (+12%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 21→19) PE COMPRESSION $303.95 (0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 21.5, Growth: 8.4%) $387.68 (+28%)

Base: (SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 8.4%) $362.32 (+19%)

Bear: (PE: 17.1, Growth: 8.4%) $307.97 (+1%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 24.22 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.46

Bull Case $377.14 (+22%)

Analyst growth 13.6%, PE expands to 26.6

Base Case $342.86 (+11%)

Market implied 13.6%, PE stable at 24.2

Bear Case $205.22 (-33%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.6

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: August 24, 2026 6:13 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:13 AM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

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Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Eric J Gehringer SELL 1999 shares 2026-03-20

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