UNP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UNP - Union Pacific Corp.
$258.61
-1.30 (-0.50%)
▼
5d:
-3.26%
30d:
-2.57%
90d:
+8.49%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
28d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: UNP shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: UNP shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$349.99
Based on 6.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$217.31
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UNP is currently trading at $258.61, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $261.51 to $272.12. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.9) is in line with its historical norms (18.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UNP is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $258.66. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $291.73 (+12.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UNP is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $258.66. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $291.73 (+12.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$261.51 -
$272.12
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($291.73)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$261.51 -
$272.12
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$258.66
Resistance Level
$279.70
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.87
Wall Street Target
$291.73
(+12.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.2%
Profit Margin
29.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.2% premium
PE vs Historical
18.9 vs 18.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$259.13
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$259.65
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$260.16
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→19)
PE COMPRESSION
$257.76
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 8.9%)
$384.93
(+49%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.9, Growth: 8.9%)
$333.58
(+29%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.0, Growth: 8.9%)
$283.55
(+10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.39 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.15
Bull Case
$322.41
(+25%)
Analyst growth 12.8%, PE expands to 23.5
Base Case
$293.10
(+13%)
Market implied 12.8%, PE stable at 21.4
Bear Case
$176.74
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 11:48 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:48 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:48 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UNP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Eric J Gehringer
SELL
1999 shares
2026-03-20
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