UNP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UNP - Union Pacific Corp.
$291.23
-0.90 (-0.31%)
▼
5d:
-2.7%
30d:
+3.18%
90d:
+9.35%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UNP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.8% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UNP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.8% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$362.34
Based on 6.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$224.99
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UNP is currently trading at $291.23, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $277.86 to $298.34. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 20.7) is in line with its historical norms (19.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UNP is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $284.79. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $328.29 (+12.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UNP is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $284.79. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $328.29 (+12.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$277.86 -
$298.34
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($328.29)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$277.86 -
$298.34
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$284.79
Resistance Level
$315.99
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.69
Wall Street Target
$328.29
(+12.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.6%
Profit Margin
28.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.8% premium
PE vs Historical
20.7 vs 19.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$300.31
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$308.72
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$317.36
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→19)
PE COMPRESSION
$292.91
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 8.2%)
$370.21
(+27%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 8.2%)
$369.58
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 8.2%)
$314.14
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.65 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.24
Bull Case
$367.22
(+26%)
Analyst growth 15.3%, PE expands to 26.0
Base Case
$333.83
(+15%)
Market implied 15.3%, PE stable at 23.7
Bear Case
$196.83
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 04, 2026 12:42 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:42 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:42 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UNP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Eric J Gehringer
SELL
1999 shares
2026-03-20
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's UNP price and gamma walls.
