GNW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GNW - Genworth Financial, Inc.
$10.38
0.25 (2.47%)
▲
5d:
+4.53%
30d:
+7.12%
90d:
+22.41%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: GNW shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: GNW shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$29.13
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$18.09
42.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GNW is currently trading at $10.38, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.79 to $10.09. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.4) compared to its historical average (18.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 20.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GNW is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $10.69. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GNW scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.00 (+15.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GNW is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $10.69. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GNW scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.00 (+15.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$9.79 -
$10.09
Company Quality Score
41/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
26.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($12.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.79 -
$10.09
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.80
Resistance Level
$10.69
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.44
Wall Street Target
$12.00
(+15.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.3%
Profit Margin
2.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-20.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.4 vs 18.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-20.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.34
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$8.41
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$7.57
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→19)
$15.16
(+46%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 0.0%)
$22.25
(+114%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.4, Growth: 0.0%)
$10.38
(0%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.0, Growth: 0.0%)
$8.82
(-15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.61 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.51
Bull Case
$22.00
(+112%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 21.6
Base Case
$20.00
(+93%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 19.6
Bear Case
$6.80
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.4 to 18.9
Stabilization Target:
$20.79
(+100.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+100.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 04, 2026 8:54 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:54 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:54 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is GNW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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