GNW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GNW - Genworth Financial, Inc.
$9.69
-0.02 (-0.21%)
âŧ
5d:
-1.42%
30d:
+5.1%
90d:
+6.02%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 7, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: GNW is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -23.9% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: GNW is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -23.9% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$25.44
Based on 2.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.80
38.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GNW is currently trading at $9.69, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.48 to $10.01. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.8) compared to its historical average (20.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 23.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GNW is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.53. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: GNW scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.00 (+23.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GNW is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.53. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: GNW scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.00 (+23.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$9.48 -
$10.01
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
50.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (35/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.8% below Wall St target ($12.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.48 -
$10.01
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.53
Resistance Level
$10.14
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 7, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.81
Wall Street Target
$12.00
(+23.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-8.4%
Profit Margin
3.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-23.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.8 vs 20.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-23.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.72
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$7.85
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$7.06
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9â20)
$16.04
(+66%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 1.9%)
$23.51
(+143%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.8, Growth: 1.9%)
$10.24
(+6%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.5, Growth: 1.9%)
$8.70
(-10%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.67 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.52
Bull Case
$21.36
(+121%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 20.5
Base Case
$19.42
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 18.7
Bear Case
$6.60
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.8 to 20.0
Stabilization Target:
$22.00
(+127.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+127.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 09, 2026 5:26 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:26 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:26 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GNW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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