GNW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GNW - Genworth Financial, Inc.
$10.16
0.17 (1.70%)
▲
5d:
+4.85%
30d:
+1.4%
90d:
+10.68%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: GNW shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: GNW shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$30.21
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$18.76
45.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GNW is currently trading at $10.16, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.54 to $10.07. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.2) compared to its historical average (19.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 22.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GNW is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $10.17. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.00 (+18.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GNW is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $10.17. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.00 (+18.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$9.54 -
$10.07
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
48.6%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (44/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($12.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 53/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.54 -
$10.07
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.53
Resistance Level
$10.17
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.24
Wall Street Target
$12.00
(+18.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.3%
Profit Margin
2.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-22.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.2 vs 19.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-22.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.14
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$8.23
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$7.41
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→20)
$15.72
(+55%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 0.0%)
$22.25
(+119%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.2, Growth: 0.0%)
$10.16
(0%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.9, Growth: 0.0%)
$8.64
(-15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.52
Bull Case
$22.04
(+117%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 21.2
Base Case
$20.04
(+97%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 19.3
Bear Case
$6.81
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.2 to 19.6
Stabilization Target:
$21.56
(+112.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+112.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 16, 2026 2:52 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:52 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:52 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GNW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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