Genworth Financial (GNW) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GNW - Genworth Financial, Inc.
$8.96
0.07 (0.84%)
▲
5d:
+0.17%
30d:
-0.17%
90d:
-8.9%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 29, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
5d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GNW trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -22.2% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GNW trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -22.2% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$26.36
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.37
45.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GNW is currently trading at $8.96, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.89 to $9.59. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.1) compared to its historical average (17.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 22.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GNW is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $8.74. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: GNW scores 78/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.50 (+18.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GNW is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $8.74. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: GNW scores 78/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.50 (+18.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$8.89 -
$9.59
Company Quality Score
70/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (78/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($10.50)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 78/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$8.89 -
$9.59
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.74
Resistance Level
$9.14
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 28, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.07
Wall Street Target
$10.50
(+18.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.3%
Profit Margin
2.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-22.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.1 vs 17.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-22.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7.99
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$7.19
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$6.47
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→17)
$13.71
(+54%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 0.0%)
$21.85
(+146%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.1, Growth: 0.0%)
$8.88
(0%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.9, Growth: 0.0%)
$7.55
(-15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.78 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.50
Bull Case
$19.56
(+120%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 19.6
Base Case
$17.78
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 17.8
Bear Case
$6.05
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.1 to 17.1
Stabilization Target:
$18.81
(+111.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+111.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 29, 2026 12:43 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:43 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:43 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GNW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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