GNW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GNW - Genworth Financial, Inc.
$10.09
0.07 (0.70%)
▲
5d:
+9.67%
30d:
+12.61%
90d:
+17.74%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 17, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
16d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: GNW shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: GNW shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$26.71
Based on 2.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.59
39.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GNW is currently trading at $10.09, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.90 to $9.66. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.2) compared to its historical average (21.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 24.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GNW is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $10.15. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GNW has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.00 (+18.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GNW is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $10.15. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GNW has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.00 (+18.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$8.90 -
$9.66
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($12.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$8.90 -
$9.66
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.09
Resistance Level
$10.15
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 17, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.17
Wall Street Target
$12.00
(+18.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-8.4%
Profit Margin
3.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-24.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.2 vs 21.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-24.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.08
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$8.17
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$7.36
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→21)
$16.84
(+67%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.0, Growth: 1.9%)
$24.42
(+142%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.2, Growth: 1.9%)
$10.66
(+6%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.8, Growth: 1.9%)
$9.06
(-10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.56 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.54
Bull Case
$22.04
(+119%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 20.4
Base Case
$20.04
(+99%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 18.6
Bear Case
$6.81
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.2 to 21.0
Stabilization Target:
$23.10
(+128.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+128.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 19, 2026 12:22 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:22 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:22 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is GNW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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