Genworth Financial (GNW) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GNW - Genworth Financial, Inc.
$10.06
-0.18 (-1.71%)
âŧ
5d:
-4.15%
30d:
+1.36%
90d:
+12.35%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: GNW is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -20.4% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: GNW is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -20.4% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$28.36
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.61
42.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GNW is currently trading at $10.05, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.87 to $10.33. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.3) compared to its historical average (18.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 20.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GNW is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.81. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.00 (+17.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GNW is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.81. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.00 (+17.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$9.87 -
$10.33
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (43/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($12.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 53/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.87 -
$10.33
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.81
Resistance Level
$10.69
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 17, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.30
Wall Street Target
$12.00
(+17.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.3%
Profit Margin
2.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-20.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.3 vs 18.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-20.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.21
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$8.29
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$7.46
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9â18)
$14.75
(+44%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 0.0%)
$22.22
(+117%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.3, Growth: 0.0%)
$10.23
(0%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.9, Growth: 0.0%)
$8.70
(-15%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.78 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.51
Bull Case
$22.20
(+117%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 21.8
Base Case
$20.18
(+97%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 19.8
Bear Case
$6.86
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.3 to 18.4
Stabilization Target:
$20.24
(+97.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+97.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 18, 2026 1:06 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:06 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:06 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GNW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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