Genworth Financial (GNW) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GNW - Genworth Financial, Inc.
$9.74
0.11 (1.14%)
▲
5d:
+4.62%
30d:
-7.15%
90d:
+5.87%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 8, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
25d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: GNW shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: GNW shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$27.28
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.94
42.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GNW is currently trading at $9.74, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.46 to $10.33. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.8) compared to its historical average (17.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 20.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GNW is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $9.76. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GNW scores 81/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.50 (+18.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GNW is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $9.76. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GNW scores 81/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.50 (+18.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$9.46 -
$10.33
Company Quality Score
66/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (81/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($11.50)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 15% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.46 -
$10.33
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.88
Resistance Level
$9.76
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 8, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.85
Wall Street Target
$11.50
(+18.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.3%
Profit Margin
2.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-20.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.9 vs 17.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-20.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.77
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$7.89
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$7.10
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→18)
$14.19
(+46%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.7, Growth: 0.0%)
$21.67
(+123%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.9, Growth: 0.0%)
$9.74
(0%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.5, Growth: 0.0%)
$8.28
(-15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.26 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.50
Bull Case
$21.19
(+118%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 21.2
Base Case
$19.26
(+98%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 19.3
Bear Case
$6.55
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.9 to 17.7
Stabilization Target:
$19.47
(+99.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+99.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 08, 2026 9:04 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:04 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:04 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is GNW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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