GOOS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GOOS - Canada Goose Holdings Inc.
$8.93
-0.33 (-3.56%)
▼
5d:
+0.45%
30d:
-6.49%
90d:
-21.53%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: GOOS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: GOOS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$21.61
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.42
33.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GOOS is currently trading at $8.93, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.25 to $9.73. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.2) compared to its historical average (15.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 3.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GOOS is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $8.75. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: GOOS has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GOOS is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $8.75. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: GOOS has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$9.25 -
$9.73
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
47.6%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.6%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($9.45)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.25 -
$9.73
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.75
Resistance Level
$9.97
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.15
Wall Street Target
$9.45
(+5.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3.0%
Profit Margin
1.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.2 vs 15.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.30
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$7.72
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$7.18
(-20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→15)
$8.93
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 25.7%)
$30.26
(+239%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.2, Growth: 25.7%)
$17.74
(+99%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.3, Growth: 25.7%)
$15.08
(+69%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 9.12 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.98
Bull Case
$10.78
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 9.6
Base Case
$8.93
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 9.1
Bear Case
$6.83
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 8.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.2 to 15.1
Stabilization Target:
$11.10
(+24.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+24.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 2:14 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:14 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:14 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GOOS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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