GOOS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GOOS - Canada Goose Holdings Inc.
$9.56
-0.10 (-1.04%)
▼
5d:
-1.65%
30d:
-2.65%
90d:
-14.41%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
15d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GOOS trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.3% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GOOS trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.3% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$21.90
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.60
29.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GOOS is currently trading at $9.56, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.43 to $9.92. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.0) compared to its historical average (15.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 3.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GOOS is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.61. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: GOOS has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GOOS is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.61. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: GOOS has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$9.43 -
$9.92
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($9.50)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.43 -
$9.92
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.61
Resistance Level
$10.42
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.01
Wall Street Target
$9.50
(-0.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3.0%
Profit Margin
1.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.0 vs 15.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.05
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$8.57
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$8.12
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→15)
$9.55
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 25.7%)
$31.80
(+233%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.0, Growth: 25.7%)
$18.99
(+99%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.1, Growth: 25.7%)
$16.14
(+69%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 9.12 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.05
Bull Case
$11.54
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 9.6
Base Case
$9.56
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 9.1
Bear Case
$7.31
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 8.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.0 to 15.3
Stabilization Target:
$11.24
(+17.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 11:29 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:29 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:29 AM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is GOOS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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