UAA Under Armour, Inc. APPAREL & OTHER FINISHD PRODS OF FABRICS & SIMILAR MATL

Under Armour (UAA) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

$4.90
-0.11 (-2.20%) β–Ό
5d: -12.03% 30d: +2.3% 90d: -8.58%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (50%)
Quality Score
41/100
Position
FAIR
30-Day Fair Range
$4.69 – $5.25
Position: FAIR
Forward P/E & Valuation
21.6x CHEAP
vs 25.0x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$6.32
+28.9% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$4.87 / $5.81
Trend: Strong Downtrend
πŸ’‘Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: UAA is down 12.0% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Nov 11, 2026 at $4.97 · last confirmed Nov 11, 2026

Strength: 8.4/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$11.05
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.86
28.6% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: UAA is currently trading at $4.90, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.69 to $5.25. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 21.6) compared to its historical average (25.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, UAA is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $4.87. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: UAA scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.32 (+28.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position FAIR
Historical Trading Range $4.69 - $5.25
Company Quality Score 41/100 (HOLD)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 50.0%

Trading Range & Key Levels

30-Day Trading Range $4.69 - $5.25
Current vs Trading Range FAIR
Support Level $4.87
Resistance Level $5.81
Current Trend Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of Nov 12, 2026

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Quantitative Signal Breakdown

  • NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
  • BEARISH: Weak technical setup (38/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BULLISH: Trading 28.9% below Wall St target ($6.32)
  • WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile β€” this cohort historically lags the market

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 21.60
Wall Street Target $6.32 (+28.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) -6.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY) -98.9%
Profit Margin -9.8%
Valuation Discount vs History -4.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical 21.6 vs 25.0 CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): -4.7% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $4.67 (-5%)
2-Year Target $4.45 (-9%)
3-Year Target $4.24 (-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 22β†’25) $4.91 (+0%)
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 21.6, Growth: 96.6%) $16.54 (+238%)
Base: (SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 96.6%) $15.21 (+210%)
Bear: (PE: 16.9, Growth: 96.6%) $12.93 (+164%)
πŸ’‘ Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.6 to 25.0
Stabilization Target: $5.67 (+15.8%)
PE Expansion Potential: +15.8%
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Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (UAA)

Bullish 3 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
2 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 6, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary: Nike intentionally reduced sales of certain products, leading to a decline in revenue. This strategic move is expected to result in less deep discounting and stronger full-price sales.
Key Retail Themes: Nike's planned sales reduction strategy Impact of this strategy on full-price sales and discounting
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams. View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 4:53 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:53 PM
πŸ”₯ Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
Ticker Score Recommendation Change %
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL

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Advanced UAA Option Strategies

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