GOOS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GOOS - Canada Goose Holdings Inc.
$9.45
-0.11 (-1.15%)
▼
5d:
-2.07%
30d:
-7.17%
90d:
-16.15%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
14d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GOOS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GOOS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$21.90
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.60
30.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GOOS is currently trading at $9.45, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.42 to $9.90. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.9) compared to its historical average (15.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 3.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GOOS is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.61. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GOOS is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.61. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$9.42 -
$9.90
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($9.50)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.42 -
$9.90
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.61
Resistance Level
$10.42
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.86
Wall Street Target
$9.50
(+0.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3.0%
Profit Margin
1.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.9 vs 15.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.92
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$8.42
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$7.95
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→15)
$9.46
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 25.7%)
$31.80
(+237%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.9, Growth: 25.7%)
$18.77
(+99%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.9, Growth: 25.7%)
$15.96
(+69%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 9.12 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.04
Bull Case
$11.41
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 9.6
Base Case
$9.45
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 9.1
Bear Case
$7.23
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 8.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.9 to 15.3
Stabilization Target:
$11.24
(+19.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+19.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 7:44 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:44 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:44 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is GOOS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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