Canada Goose (GOOS) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GOOS - Canada Goose Holdings Inc.
$8.06
-0.27 (-3.24%)
▼
5d:
-0.25%
30d:
+6.05%
90d:
-11.62%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
12d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: GOOS shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: GOOS shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$20.04
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.44
35.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GOOS is currently trading at $8.06, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $7.52 to $8.05. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.0) compared to its historical average (14.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 3.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GOOS is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $7.74, while resistance sits at $8.39. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: GOOS scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.49 (+17.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GOOS is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $7.74, while resistance sits at $8.39. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: GOOS scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.49 (+17.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$7.52 -
$8.05
Company Quality Score
35/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
21.4%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (20/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($9.49)
- WARNING: Composite score 35/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$7.52 -
$8.05
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$7.74
Resistance Level
$8.40
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.97
Wall Street Target
$9.49
(+17.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3.0%
Profit Margin
3.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.0 vs 14.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7.42
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$6.84
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$6.30
(-22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→14)
$8.04
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 25.7%)
$28.99
(+260%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.0, Growth: 25.7%)
$16.01
(+99%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.3, Growth: 25.7%)
$13.61
(+69%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.32 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.41
Bull Case
$16.42
(+104%)
Analyst growth 79.2%, PE expands to 22.4
Base Case
$14.93
(+85%)
Market implied 79.2%, PE stable at 20.3
Bear Case
$5.66
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.0 to 14.0
Stabilization Target:
$10.29
(+27.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+27.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 6:06 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:06 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:06 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is GOOS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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