HGV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HGV - Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. Common Stock
$45.11
0.29 (0.65%)
▲
5d:
-1.79%
30d:
-7.03%
90d:
-7.88%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HGV trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.3% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HGV trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.3% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$84.72
Based on 10.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$52.61
14.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HGV is currently trading at $45.11, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $44.65 to $50.03. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.1) compared to its historical average (9.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HGV is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $42.49, while resistance sits at $46.56.
Market Sentiment: HGV scores 84/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $55.64 (+23.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HGV is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $42.49, while resistance sits at $46.56.
Market Sentiment: HGV scores 84/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $55.64 (+23.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$44.65 -
$50.03
Company Quality Score
67/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (84/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.3% below Wall St target ($55.64)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 84/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$44.65 -
$50.03
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$42.49
Resistance Level
$46.56
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.07
Wall Street Target
$55.64
(+23.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-40.0%
Profit Margin
3.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.1 vs 9.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$43.17
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$41.31
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$39.54
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$45.07
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 17.2%)
$180.40
(+300%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.1, Growth: 17.2%)
$72.54
(+61%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.9, Growth: 17.2%)
$61.66
(+37%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.76 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.74
Bull Case
$98.60
(+119%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 28.3
Base Case
$89.64
(+99%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 25.8
Bear Case
$30.48
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.1 to 9.2
Stabilization Target:
$51.42
(+14.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 22, 2026 9:41 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:41 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:41 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HGV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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