HGV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HGV - Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. Common Stock
$46.14
-0.18 (-0.39%)
▼
5d:
-5.62%
30d:
-10.37%
90d:
-1.77%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HGV shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: HGV shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$64.75
Based on 4.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$40.20
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HGV is currently trading at $46.14, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $48.64 to $52.95. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.4) compared to its historical average (9.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HGV is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $44.44, while resistance sits at $53.37.
Market Sentiment: HGV has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $58.30 (+26.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HGV is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $44.44, while resistance sits at $53.37.
Market Sentiment: HGV has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $58.30 (+26.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$48.64 -
$52.95
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.4% below Wall St target ($58.30)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-5.6%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$48.64 -
$52.95
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$44.44
Resistance Level
$53.37
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.36
Wall Street Target
$58.30
(+26.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-40.7%
Profit Margin
3.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.4 vs 9.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$44.53
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$42.97
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$41.46
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$46.14
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 5.5%)
$134.32
(+191%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.4, Growth: 5.5%)
$54.15
(+17%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.1, Growth: 5.5%)
$46.03
(0%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 27.74 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.67
Bull Case
$101.90
(+121%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 30.5
Base Case
$92.64
(+101%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 27.7
Bear Case
$31.50
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.4 to 9.3
Stabilization Target:
$51.34
(+11.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 6:18 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:18 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:18 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HGV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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