MGM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MGM - MGM RESORTS INTERNATIONAL
$43.74
0.57 (1.32%)
▲
5d:
-0.82%
30d:
-2.78%
90d:
+16.14%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 13, 2026 at $44.21 · last confirmed Aug 21, 2026
Strength: 8.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MGM shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MGM shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$50.61
Based on 7.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$31.42
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MGM is currently trading at $43.74, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $43.84 to $46.24. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 21.1) compared to its historical average (17.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $42.58. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MGM scores 75/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $50.63 (+15.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $42.58. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MGM scores 75/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $50.63 (+15.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$43.84 -
$46.24
Company Quality Score
67/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($50.63)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 6.9% growth expectation is conservative given 519% recent growth
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 75/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$43.84 -
$46.24
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$42.58
Resistance Level
$44.42
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.14
Wall Street Target
$50.63
(+15.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
519.4%
Profit Margin
2.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+6.9% premium
PE vs Historical
21.1 vs 17.3
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+6.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$46.76
(+7%)
2-Year Target
$49.98
(+14%)
3-Year Target
$53.43
(+22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$43.72
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.1, Growth: 10.4%)
$58.92
(+35%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 10.4%)
$55.93
(+28%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 10.4%)
$47.54
(+9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.16 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.65
Bull Case
$59.54
(+36%)
Analyst growth 25.4%, PE expands to 28.8
Base Case
$54.12
(+24%)
Market implied 25.4%, PE stable at 26.2
Bear Case
$29.36
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 8:28 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:28 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:28 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MGM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
1
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
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