HGV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HGV - Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. Common Stock
$49.92
-2.14 (-4.11%)
▼
5d:
-2.84%
30d:
+10.08%
90d:
+11.83%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HGV shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HGV shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$74.01
Based on 5.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$45.95
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HGV is currently trading at $49.92, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $45.20 to $50.43. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.5) compared to its historical average (9.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 187.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HGV is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $45.32, while resistance sits at $53.82. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: HGV has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $57.70 (+15.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HGV is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $45.32, while resistance sits at $53.82. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: HGV has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $57.70 (+15.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$45.20 -
$50.43
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
69.0%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($57.70)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$45.20 -
$50.43
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$45.32
Resistance Level
$53.82
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.47
Wall Street Target
$57.70
(+15.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
187.2%
Profit Margin
3.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.5 vs 9.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$48.07
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$46.29
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$44.58
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→10)
$49.99
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 7.5%)
$160.49
(+222%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.5, Growth: 7.5%)
$62.06
(+24%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.2, Growth: 7.5%)
$52.75
(+6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.42 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.85
Bull Case
$115.68
(+123%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 31.3
Base Case
$105.16
(+102%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 28.4
Bear Case
$35.75
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.5 to 9.5
Stabilization Target:
$55.98
(+12.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 03, 2026 6:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:25 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:25 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HGV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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