HGV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HGV - Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. Common Stock
$49.19
-0.48 (-0.97%)
▼
5d:
-3.98%
30d:
-3.85%
90d:
+5.69%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
14d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HGV appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -3.7% annual earnings decline despite 187% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HGV appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -3.7% annual earnings decline despite 187% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$73.23
Based on 5.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$45.47
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HGV is currently trading at $49.19, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $49.66 to $53.09. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.3) compared to its historical average (9.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 187.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HGV is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $48.05. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $57.70 (+17.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HGV is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $48.05. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $57.70 (+17.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$49.66 -
$53.09
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($57.70)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$49.66 -
$53.09
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$48.05
Resistance Level
$53.82
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.35
Wall Street Target
$57.70
(+17.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
187.2%
Profit Margin
3.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.4 vs 9.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$47.37
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$45.62
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$43.93
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$49.47
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 7.5%)
$159.54
(+224%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.3, Growth: 7.5%)
$61.15
(+24%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.1, Growth: 7.5%)
$51.98
(+6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 27.25 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.85
Bull Case
$110.92
(+126%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 30.0
Base Case
$100.84
(+105%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 27.3
Bear Case
$34.29
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.3 to 9.4
Stabilization Target:
$55.39
(+12.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 7:45 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:45 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:45 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HGV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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