HGV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HGV - Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. Common Stock
$52.34
0.26 (0.50%)
▲
5d:
+2.29%
30d:
+6.88%
90d:
+25.73%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HGV shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HGV shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$73.23
Based on 5.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$45.47
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HGV is currently trading at $52.34, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $47.58 to $52.12. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.9) is in line with its historical norms (9.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 187.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HGV is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $53.82. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $57.70 (+10.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HGV is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $53.82. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $57.70 (+10.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$47.58 -
$52.12
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.9%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($57.70)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$47.58 -
$52.12
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$48.05
Resistance Level
$53.82
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.88
Wall Street Target
$57.70
(+10.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
187.2%
Profit Margin
3.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.9 vs 9.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$51.35
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$50.37
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$49.41
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
$52.29
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 7.5%)
$159.54
(+205%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.9, Growth: 7.5%)
$65.06
(+24%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.6, Growth: 7.5%)
$55.30
(+6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 27.94 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.85
Bull Case
$113.72
(+117%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 30.7
Base Case
$103.38
(+98%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 27.9
Bear Case
$35.15
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.9 to 9.4
Stabilization Target:
$55.39
(+5.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 1:27 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:27 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:27 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HGV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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