HGV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HGV - Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. Common Stock
$45.29
-0.85 (-1.84%)
▼
5d:
-10.55%
30d:
-14.4%
90d:
-1.41%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HGV shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: HGV shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$74.88
Based on 7.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$46.50
2.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HGV is currently trading at $45.29, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $48.06 to $52.63. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.2) compared to its historical average (9.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HGV is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $44.44. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: HGV has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $56.90 (+25.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HGV is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $44.44. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: HGV has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $56.90 (+25.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$48.06 -
$52.63
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 25.6% below Wall St target ($56.90)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-10.5%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$48.06 -
$52.63
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$44.44
Resistance Level
$53.37
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.16
Wall Street Target
$56.90
(+25.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-40.0%
Profit Margin
3.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.2 vs 9.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$43.34
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$41.48
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$39.70
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$45.26
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 11.5%)
$159.64
(+253%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.2, Growth: 11.5%)
$62.82
(+39%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.9, Growth: 11.5%)
$53.39
(+18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.22 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.76
Bull Case
$101.51
(+124%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 28.8
Base Case
$92.28
(+104%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 26.2
Bear Case
$31.38
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.2 to 9.3
Stabilization Target:
$51.64
(+14.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 04, 2026 8:35 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:35 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:35 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HGV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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