Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HGV - Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. Common Stock
$35.89
-1.19 (-3.21%)
▼
5d:
+1.27%
30d:
+2.31%
90d:
-29.11%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
4d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HGV shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: HGV shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$60.15
Based on 5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$37.35
3.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HGV is currently trading at $35.89, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $34.41 to $36.97. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.0) compared to its historical average (8.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HGV is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $34.16, while resistance sits at $37.27. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 42/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $50.64 (+41.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HGV is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $34.16, while resistance sits at $37.27. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 42/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $50.64 (+41.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$34.41 -
$36.97
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (42/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading 41.1% below Wall St target ($50.64)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (42/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$34.41 -
$36.97
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$34.16
Resistance Level
$37.27
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.99
Wall Street Target
$50.64
(+41.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-40.0%
Profit Margin
3.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.0 vs 8.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$33.27
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$30.84
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$28.59
(-20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→9)
$35.99
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 7.8%)
$127.59
(+256%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.0, Growth: 7.8%)
$44.91
(+25%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.9, Growth: 7.8%)
$38.17
(+6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.07 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.76
Bull Case
$81.58
(+127%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 23.2
Base Case
$74.16
(+107%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 21.1
Bear Case
$25.21
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.0 to 8.8
Stabilization Target:
$45.18
(+25.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+25.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 24, 2026 5:10 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:10 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:10 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HGV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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