Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HGV - Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. Common Stock
$34.86
0.03 (0.09%)
▲
5d:
-2.54%
30d:
-17.33%
90d:
-32.1%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HGV shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: HGV shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$64.58
Based on 6.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$40.10
13.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HGV is currently trading at $34.86, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $36.25 to $43.23. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.6) compared to its historical average (8.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HGV is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $34.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: HGV scores 76/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $55.90 (+60.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HGV is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $34.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: HGV scores 76/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $55.90 (+60.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$36.25 -
$43.23
Company Quality Score
70/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (76/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 60.4% below Wall St target ($55.90)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 31% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$36.25 -
$43.23
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$34.01
Resistance Level
$37.26
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.61
Wall Street Target
$55.90
(+60.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-40.0%
Profit Margin
3.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.6 vs 8.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$31.55
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$28.55
(-18%)
3-Year Target
$25.84
(-26%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→9)
$34.80
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 9.2%)
$140.26
(+302%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.6, Growth: 9.2%)
$45.44
(+30%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.6, Growth: 9.2%)
$38.62
(+11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.68 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.77
Bull Case
$76.63
(+120%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 21.7
Base Case
$69.66
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 19.7
Bear Case
$23.68
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.6 to 8.9
Stabilization Target:
$46.95
(+34.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+34.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 04, 2026 2:53 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:53 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:53 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HGV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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