HGV
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. Common Stock
HOTELS, ROOMING HOUSES, CAMPS & OTHER LODGING PLACES
Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$43.92
+0.00 (+0.00%)
▲
5d:
-0.07%
30d:
+21.9%
90d:
-2.23%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (24%)
Quality Score
35/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$34.07 – $42.03
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
8.7x
FAIR
vs 8.7x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$47.70
+8.6% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$38.29 / $45.77
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HGV shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$31.59
Based on -6.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$19.62
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HGV is currently trading at $43.92, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $34.07 to $42.03. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.7) is in line with its historical norms (8.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1221.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HGV is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $38.29, while resistance sits at $45.77.
Market Sentiment: HGV scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HGV is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $38.29, while resistance sits at $45.77.
Market Sentiment: HGV scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$34.07 -
$42.03
Company Quality Score
35/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
23.8%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$34.07 -
$42.03
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$38.29
Resistance Level
$45.77
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 13, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($47.70)
- WARNING: Composite score 35/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.70
Wall Street Target
$47.70
(+8.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
54.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1221.4%
Profit Margin
7.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.7 vs 8.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$43.88
(0%)
2-Year Target
$43.83
(0%)
3-Year Target
$43.79
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$43.78
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -16.2%)
$73.07
(+66%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.7, Growth: -16.2%)
$32.02
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.4, Growth: -16.2%)
$27.22
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 8.68 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.07
Bull Case
$48.18
(+10%)
Analyst growth -0.4%, PE expands to 9.6
Base Case
$43.80
(0%)
Market implied -0.4%, PE stable at 8.7
Bear Case
$29.92
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (HGV)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Oct 29, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Investor $UserName reported a significant earnings beat for $HGV with an adjusted EPS of $4.03 vs. $1.08 estimated, boosting bullish sentiment on StockTwits.
Key Retail Themes:
earnings surprise
bullish sentiment
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 14, 2026 5:53 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:53 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:53 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HGV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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