MAR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MAR - Marriott International Class A Common Stock
$348.31
-24.52 (-6.58%)
▼
5d:
-9.07%
30d:
-6.61%
90d:
-1.88%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MAR is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.9% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: MAR is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.9% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$488.52
Based on 8.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$303.33
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MAR is currently trading at $348.31, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $367.46 to $380.80. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 29.1) is in line with its historical norms (27.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MAR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $360.71. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: MAR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MAR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $360.71. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: MAR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$367.46 -
$380.80
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MAR? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-6.6%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($384.83)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -9.1% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$367.46 -
$380.80
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$360.71
Resistance Level
$384.23
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
29.07
Wall Street Target
$384.83
(+1.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1.7%
Profit Margin
36.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.9% premium
PE vs Historical
29.1 vs 27.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$388.36
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$395.74
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$403.26
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 29→28)
PE COMPRESSION
$381.53
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 29.1, Growth: 12.7%)
$546.21
(+43%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.8, Growth: 12.7%)
$391.06
(+3%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.7, Growth: 12.7%)
$332.40
(-13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (40x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (29x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 40.16 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.55
Bull Case
$579.22
(+55%)
Analyst growth 37.3%, PE expands to 44.2
Base Case
$526.57
(+41%)
Market implied 37.3%, PE stable at 40.2
Bear Case
$260.79
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 34.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 12:48 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:48 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:48 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MAR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Rajeev Menon
SELL
3492 shares
2026-02-19
Benjamin T Breland
SELL
2000 shares
2026-02-18
Rajeev Menon
SELL
6333 shares
2026-02-18
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