TNL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TNL - Travel + Leisure Co.
$78.60
2.58 (3.39%)
▲
5d:
+3.0%
30d:
+2.62%
90d:
+22.05%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TNL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TNL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$122.60
Based on 9.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$76.12
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TNL is currently trading at $78.60, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $73.54 to $77.09. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.7) is in line with its historical norms (8.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 6.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TNL is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $78.57. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: TNL has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $91.60 (+20.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TNL is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $78.57. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: TNL has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $91.60 (+20.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$73.54 -
$77.09
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
66.7%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading 20.5% below Wall St target ($91.60)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$73.54 -
$77.09
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$72.24
Resistance Level
$78.57
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.70
Wall Street Target
$91.60
(+20.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.2%
Profit Margin
5.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.7 vs 8.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$75.72
(0%)
2-Year Target
$75.41
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$75.11
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
$76.00
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 15.7%)
$280.89
(+270%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.7, Growth: 15.7%)
$117.85
(+55%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.4, Growth: 15.7%)
$100.17
(+32%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.58
Bull Case
$165.37
(+118%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 23.1
Base Case
$150.34
(+98%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 21.0
Bear Case
$51.12
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.7 to 8.8
Stabilization Target:
$76.92
(+1.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 12:29 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:29 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:29 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TNL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Erik D Hoag
BUY
1000 shares
2026-04-23
Michael Dean Brown
SELL
9443 shares
2026-04-17
Michael Dean Brown
SELL
1109 shares
2026-04-16
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