MD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MD - Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc.
$26.51
0.03 (0.11%)
▲
5d:
+0.95%
30d:
+1.42%
90d:
+17.77%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
TODAY
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MD trades at premium valuation expecting 5.2% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: MD trades at premium valuation expecting 5.2% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$27.65
Based on 3.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.17
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MD is currently trading at $26.51, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $25.07 to $26.85. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 11.3) compared to its historical average (9.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MD is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $27.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MD is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $27.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$25.07 -
$26.85
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($24.50)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 5.2% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$25.07 -
$26.85
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$25.36
Resistance Level
$27.00
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.33
Wall Street Target
$24.50
(-8.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
50.0%
Profit Margin
9.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.2% premium
PE vs Historical
11.3 vs 9.7
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$28.12
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$29.58
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$31.12
(+16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$26.65
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.8, Growth: 3.7%)
$54.69
(+105%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.3, Growth: 3.7%)
$29.77
(+11%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.6, Growth: 3.7%)
$25.31
(-5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.67 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.12
Bull Case
$32.89
(+24%)
Analyst growth 11.3%, PE expands to 13.9
Base Case
$29.90
(+13%)
Market implied 11.3%, PE stable at 12.7
Bear Case
$18.26
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 9:45 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:45 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:45 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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