MD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MD - Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc.
$26.57
0.35 (1.33%)
▲
5d:
-0.15%
30d:
+3.87%
90d:
+23.29%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MD is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: MD is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$29.02
Based on 4.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$18.02
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MD is currently trading at $26.57, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $25.56 to $26.74. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 10.9) compared to its historical average (9.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MD is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $27.14. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MD is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $27.14. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$25.56 -
$26.74
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($26.33)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (45/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$25.56 -
$26.74
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$25.15
Resistance Level
$27.14
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.89
Wall Street Target
$26.33
(-0.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.5%
Profit Margin
9.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.6% premium
PE vs Historical
10.9 vs 9.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$27.53
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$28.52
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$29.54
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$26.59
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 3.9%)
$54.90
(+107%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.9, Growth: 3.9%)
$29.79
(+12%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.3, Growth: 3.9%)
$25.32
(-5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.55 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.09
Bull Case
$33.67
(+27%)
Analyst growth 16.7%, PE expands to 13.8
Base Case
$30.61
(+15%)
Market implied 16.7%, PE stable at 12.6
Bear Case
$17.83
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 1:03 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:03 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:03 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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