Pediatrix Medical Group (MD) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MD - Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc.
$26.17
0.41 (1.59%)
▲
5d:
-0.53%
30d:
-2.57%
90d:
-4.45%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 02, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MD is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: MD is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$29.41
Based on 4.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$18.26
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MD is currently trading at $26.17, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $25.92 to $26.89. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.6) is in line with its historical norms (9.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MD is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $26.82. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 54/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MD is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $26.82. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 54/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$25.92 -
$26.89
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (54/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($26.33)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (54/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$25.92 -
$26.89
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$25.18
Resistance Level
$26.82
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.55
Wall Street Target
$26.33
(+2.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.5%
Profit Margin
9.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.0% premium
PE vs Historical
10.6 vs 9.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$26.28
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$26.80
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$27.34
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$25.65
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 4.0%)
$55.95
(+117%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.6, Growth: 4.0%)
$28.94
(+12%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.0, Growth: 4.0%)
$24.60
(-5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.49 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.06
Bull Case
$33.54
(+30%)
Analyst growth 18.5%, PE expands to 13.7
Base Case
$30.49
(+18%)
Market implied 18.5%, PE stable at 12.5
Bear Case
$17.50
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 10:21 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:21 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:21 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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