MRCY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MRCY - Mercury Systems Inc.
$98.26
-9.72 (-9.00%)
▼
5d:
-20.16%
30d:
-8.0%
90d:
+23.44%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 10, 2026
26d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: MRCY is down 20.2% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: MRCY is down 20.2% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$74.56
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$46.30
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MRCY is currently trading at $98.26, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $107.07 to $119.80. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 64.2) is in line with its historical norms (59.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.8% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MRCY is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $100.44. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 9.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (19th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MRCY is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $100.44. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 9.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (19th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$107.07 -
$119.80
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
19th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MRCY? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 19th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-9.0%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($102.75)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.8% growth with 11.5% revenue growth
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -20.2% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$107.07 -
$119.80
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$9.86
(10.0%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$100.44
Resistance Level
$128.45
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
64.16
Wall Street Target
$102.75
(+4.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-34.7%
Profit Margin
-1.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.8% premium
PE vs Historical
64.2 vs 59.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$101.01
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$103.84
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$106.75
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 64→59)
PE COMPRESSION
$98.17
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 64.2, Growth: 44.0%)
$293.33
(+199%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 44.0%)
$99.58
(+1%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 44.0%)
$84.64
(-14%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 9:09 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:09 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:09 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MRCY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
David E Farnsworth
SELL
3625 shares
2026-04-16
Jana Partners Management…
SELL
100899 shares
2026-03-04
Jana Partners Management…
SELL
168648 shares
2026-03-03
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Advanced MRCY Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MRCY price and gamma walls.
