NGG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NGG - National Grid PLC
$83.40
0.80 (0.97%)
▲
5d:
+0.97%
30d:
+3.75%
90d:
-7.64%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 04, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NGG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: NGG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$140.41
Based on 10.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$87.18
4.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NGG is currently trading at $83.39, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $80.46 to $82.89. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.5) is in line with its historical norms (14.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 14.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NGG is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $79.69, while resistance sits at $86.35.
Market Sentiment: NGG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $90.95 (+10.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NGG is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $79.69, while resistance sits at $86.35.
Market Sentiment: NGG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $90.95 (+10.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$80.46 -
$82.89
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($90.95)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$80.46 -
$82.89
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$79.70
Resistance Level
$86.35
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.49
Wall Street Target
$90.95
(+10.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
14.4%
Profit Margin
18.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.5 vs 14.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$81.35
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$80.13
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$78.93
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→14)
$82.53
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 16.6%)
$211.35
(+156%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.5, Growth: 16.6%)
$130.86
(+58%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.5, Growth: 16.6%)
$111.23
(+35%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.32 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.26
Bull Case
$130.18
(+58%)
Analyst growth 43.8%, PE expands to 21.3
Base Case
$118.35
(+43%)
Market implied 43.8%, PE stable at 19.3
Bear Case
$55.98
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.5 to 14.1
Stabilization Target:
$86.36
(+4.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 3:31 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:31 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:31 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NGG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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