National Grid (NGG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NGG - National Grid PLC
$80.78
-0.28 (-0.35%)
▼
5d:
+2.89%
30d:
+5.1%
90d:
-1.93%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
13d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NGG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NGG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$136.43
Based on 10.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$84.71
4.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NGG is currently trading at $80.78, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $75.19 to $78.12. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.2) is in line with its historical norms (13.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 14.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NGG is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $81.31. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NGG scores 10/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $89.94 (+11.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NGG is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $81.31. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NGG scores 10/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $89.94 (+11.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$75.19 -
$78.12
Company Quality Score
26/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
26.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (10/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($89.94)
- WARNING: Composite score 26/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$75.19 -
$78.12
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$76.07
Resistance Level
$81.32
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.19
Wall Street Target
$89.94
(+11.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
14.4%
Profit Margin
18.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.2 vs 13.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$79.73
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$78.69
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$77.67
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→14)
$80.68
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 16.6%)
$192.72
(+139%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.2, Growth: 16.6%)
$127.99
(+58%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.2, Growth: 16.6%)
$108.79
(+35%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.46 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.39
Bull Case
$124.40
(+54%)
Analyst growth 39.5%, PE expands to 20.3
Base Case
$113.09
(+40%)
Market implied 39.5%, PE stable at 18.5
Bear Case
$55.12
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.2 to 13.7
Stabilization Target:
$83.91
(+3.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 5:54 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:54 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:54 AM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is NGG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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