National Grid (NGG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$83.62
-0.64 (-0.76%)
▼
5d:
+0.95%
30d:
+8.43%
90d:
+3.64%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (24%)
Quality Score
47/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$77.29 – $83.67
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
13.7x
FAIR
vs 13.7x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$91.77
+9.7% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$81.46 / $87.39
Trend: Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NGG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$136.43
Based on 10.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$84.71
1.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NGG is currently trading at $83.62, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $77.29 to $83.67. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.7) is in line with its historical norms (13.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 114.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NGG is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $81.46. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NGG scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NGG is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $81.46. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NGG scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$77.29 -
$83.67
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
23.8%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$77.29 -
$83.67
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$81.46
Resistance Level
$87.39
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (33/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($91.77)
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.65
Wall Street Target
$91.77
(+9.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
114.4%
Profit Margin
21.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.7 vs 13.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$83.54
(0%)
2-Year Target
$83.45
(0%)
3-Year Target
$83.37
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→14)
$83.65
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 16.6%)
$192.72
(+131%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.7, Growth: 16.6%)
$132.49
(+58%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.6, Growth: 16.6%)
$112.61
(+35%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.75 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.35
Bull Case
$106.10
(+27%)
Analyst growth 14.5%, PE expands to 17.3
Base Case
$96.46
(+15%)
Market implied 14.5%, PE stable at 15.8
Bear Case
$57.30
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.7 to 13.7
Stabilization Target:
$83.91
(+0.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.3%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (NGG)
Bullish
1 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
Last Tracked
Jul 8, 2021
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Reddit & WallStreetBets discussions on NGG are bullish (sentiment score +0.46) across 1 tracked comments.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 5:30 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:30 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:30 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NGG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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