NGG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NGG - National Grid PLC
$79.76
-0.86 (-1.07%)
âŧ
5d:
-1.59%
30d:
-3.17%
90d:
-7.71%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: NGG is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -2.4% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: NGG is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -2.4% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$139.41
Based on 10.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$86.56
7.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NGG is currently trading at $79.76, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $80.05 to $82.72. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.0) is in line with its historical norms (14.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 14.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NGG is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $79.10. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $90.89 (+14.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NGG is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $79.10. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $90.89 (+14.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$80.05 -
$82.72
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (49/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($90.89)
- WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$80.05 -
$82.72
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$79.10
Resistance Level
$82.34
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.02
Wall Street Target
$90.89
(+14.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
14.4%
Profit Margin
18.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.0 vs 14.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$77.85
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$75.98
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$74.15
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13â14)
$79.72
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 16.6%)
$194.75
(+144%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.0, Growth: 16.6%)
$126.37
(+58%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.1, Growth: 16.6%)
$107.42
(+35%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.20 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.43
Bull Case
$122.60
(+54%)
Analyst growth 38.3%, PE expands to 20.0
Base Case
$111.46
(+40%)
Market implied 38.3%, PE stable at 18.2
Bear Case
$54.82
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.0 to 14.0
Stabilization Target:
$85.74
(+7.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 22, 2026 9:46 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:46 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:46 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NGG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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