NGG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NGG - National Grid PLC
$79.97
-0.42 (-0.52%)
▼
5d:
-2.83%
30d:
-0.26%
90d:
-10.69%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 04, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NGG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: NGG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$140.41
Based on 10.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$87.18
8.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NGG is currently trading at $79.97, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $81.08 to $83.59. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.1) is in line with its historical norms (14.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 14.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NGG is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $78.76. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NGG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $90.89 (+13.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NGG is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $78.76. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NGG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $90.89 (+13.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$81.08 -
$83.59
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($90.89)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$81.08 -
$83.59
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$78.76
Resistance Level
$84.21
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.06
Wall Street Target
$90.89
(+13.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
14.4%
Profit Margin
18.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.1 vs 14.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$77.97
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$76.02
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$74.12
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→14)
$80.04
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 16.6%)
$201.16
(+152%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.1, Growth: 16.6%)
$126.70
(+58%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.1, Growth: 16.6%)
$107.70
(+35%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.11 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.44
Bull Case
$121.98
(+53%)
Analyst growth 37.9%, PE expands to 19.9
Base Case
$110.89
(+39%)
Market implied 37.9%, PE stable at 18.1
Bear Case
$54.67
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.1 to 14.1
Stabilization Target:
$86.36
(+8.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 5:14 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:14 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:14 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NGG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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