National Grid (NGG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NGG - National Grid PLC
$76.86
0.48 (0.63%)
▲
5d:
-1.68%
30d:
-4.73%
90d:
-5.72%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NGG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NGG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$138.42
Based on 10.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$85.95
10.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NGG is currently trading at $76.86, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $78.26 to $81.11. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.6) is in line with its historical norms (13.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 14.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NGG is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $76.37. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NGG scores 6/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $91.19 (+18.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NGG is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $76.37. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NGG scores 6/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $91.19 (+18.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$78.26 -
$81.11
Company Quality Score
32/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (6/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($91.19)
- WARNING: Composite score 32/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$78.26 -
$81.11
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$76.37
Resistance Level
$80.01
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.55
Wall Street Target
$91.19
(+18.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
14.4%
Profit Margin
18.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.6 vs 13.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$74.25
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$71.72
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$69.28
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→14)
$76.74
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 16.6%)
$195.72
(+155%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.5, Growth: 16.6%)
$121.78
(+58%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.7, Growth: 16.6%)
$103.51
(+35%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.44 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.38
Bull Case
$117.48
(+53%)
Analyst growth 39.8%, PE expands to 19.2
Base Case
$106.80
(+39%)
Market implied 39.8%, PE stable at 17.4
Bear Case
$51.94
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.5 to 13.9
Stabilization Target:
$85.13
(+10.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 11, 2026 11:11 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:11 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:11 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NGG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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