PGY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PGY - Pagaya Technologies Ltd. Class A Ordinary Shares
$15.87
0.39 (2.52%)
▲
5d:
+1.6%
30d:
+16.26%
90d:
+33.25%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 26, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PGY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PGY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$26.54
Based on 9.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.48
3.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 4.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PGY is currently trading at $15.87, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.64 to $15.66. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 4.5) is in line with its historical norms (4.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 183.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PGY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $16.27. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PGY has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.90 (+69.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PGY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $16.27. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PGY has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.90 (+69.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$13.64 -
$15.66
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 69.5% below Wall St target ($26.90)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$13.64 -
$15.66
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.33
Resistance Level
$16.27
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.48
Wall Street Target
$26.90
(+69.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
183.8%
Profit Margin
7.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.5 vs 4.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.47
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$15.09
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$14.71
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→5)
$15.74
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 14.8%)
$116.48
(+634%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.5, Growth: 14.8%)
$23.99
(+51%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.8, Growth: 14.8%)
$20.39
(+29%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.82 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.12
Bull Case
$34.06
(+115%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 15.2
Base Case
$30.96
(+95%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 13.8
Bear Case
$10.53
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.5 to 4.8
Stabilization Target:
$16.98
(+7.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 28, 2026 1:05 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:05 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:05 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PGY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Tami Rosen
SELL
9720 shares
2026-04-17
Evangelos Perros
SELL
13004 shares
2026-04-01
Evangelos Perros
SELL
8425 shares
2026-03-12
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