PGY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PGY - Pagaya Technologies Ltd. Class A Ordinary Shares
$22.24
2.97 (15.39%)
▲
5d:
+31.1%
30d:
+24.99%
90d:
+56.14%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: PGY is 17.9% above its trading range ($18.86). Market expects 5.1% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: PGY is 17.9% above its trading range ($18.86). Market expects 5.1% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$25.38
Based on 5.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.76
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 4.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PGY is currently trading at $22.23, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.24 to $18.86. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 5.6) compared to its historical average (4.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PGY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $22.28. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 15.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.50 (+28.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PGY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $22.28. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 15.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.50 (+28.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$16.24 -
$18.86
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
46.2%
Protect Your Profits
PGY is technically overbought (RSI 73). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+17.9% above its trading range)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+15.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading 28.2% below Wall St target ($28.50)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 5.1% growth expectation is conservative given 143% recent growth
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to 17.9% overvaluation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$16.24 -
$18.86
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$15.68
Resistance Level
$22.28
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.64
Wall Street Target
$28.50
(+28.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
143.3%
Profit Margin
9.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.1% premium
PE vs Historical
5.6 vs 4.9
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$23.37
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$24.56
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$25.81
(+16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→5)
PE COMPRESSION
$22.44
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 7.2%)
$100.61
(+353%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.6, Growth: 7.2%)
$27.36
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.8, Growth: 7.2%)
$23.25
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.67 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.41
Bull Case
$42.39
(+91%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 15.0
Base Case
$38.54
(+73%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 13.7
Bear Case
$13.10
(-41%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 04, 2026 3:21 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:21 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:21 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PGY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Tami Rosen
SELL
9720 shares
2026-04-17
Evangelos Perros
SELL
13004 shares
2026-04-01
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8425 shares
2026-03-12
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