PGY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PGY - Pagaya Technologies Ltd. Class A Ordinary Shares
$17.98
0.54 (3.10%)
▲
5d:
+2.04%
30d:
-18.27%
90d:
-3.9%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 09, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Sep 25, 2026 at $17.62 · last confirmed Oct 2, 2026
Strength: 7.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PGY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: PGY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$29.49
Based on 7.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$18.31
1.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 4.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PGY is currently trading at $17.98, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.64 to $22.41. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 4.3) compared to its historical average (4.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 143.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PGY is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $16.50, while resistance sits at $21.60. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: PGY scores 70/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.91 (+60.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PGY is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $16.50, while resistance sits at $21.60. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: PGY scores 70/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.91 (+60.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$18.64 -
$22.41
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
95.2%
Protect Your Profits
Holding PGY? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (70/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 60.8% below Wall St target ($28.91)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 36% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$18.64 -
$22.41
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$16.50
Resistance Level
$21.60
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.35
Wall Street Target
$28.91
(+60.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
143.3%
Profit Margin
9.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.4 vs 4.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.28
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$16.60
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$15.96
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→5)
$17.97
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 11.7%)
$117.54
(+554%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.4, Growth: 11.7%)
$25.08
(+40%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.7, Growth: 11.7%)
$21.31
(+19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.37 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.41
Bull Case
$38.37
(+113%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 13.6
Base Case
$34.88
(+94%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 12.4
Bear Case
$11.86
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.4 to 4.9
Stabilization Target:
$20.24
(+12.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 04, 2026 12:11 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:11 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:11 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is PGY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Tami Rosen
SELL
9720 shares
2026-04-17
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Advanced PGY Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PGY price and gamma walls.
