PGY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PGY - Pagaya Technologies Ltd. Class A Ordinary Shares
$21.88
0.20 (0.92%)
▲
5d:
+4.54%
30d:
+37.7%
90d:
+71.47%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 14, 2026 at $21.48 · last confirmed Aug 21, 2026
Strength: 5.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PGY shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PGY shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$27.45
Based on 6.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.05
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 4.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PGY is currently trading at $21.88, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $17.27 to $21.69. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 5.0) is in line with its historical norms (4.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PGY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $22.29. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PGY scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.80 (+42.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PGY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $22.29. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PGY scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.80 (+42.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$17.27 -
$21.69
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
29.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding PGY? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (36/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 42.3% below Wall St target ($28.80)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$17.27 -
$21.69
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$19.55
Resistance Level
$22.29
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.00
Wall Street Target
$28.80
(+42.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
143.3%
Profit Margin
9.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.8% premium
PE vs Historical
5.0 vs 4.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.40
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$20.57
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$20.73
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→5)
PE COMPRESSION
$20.30
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 9.5%)
$106.63
(+427%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.0, Growth: 9.5%)
$26.59
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.3, Growth: 9.5%)
$22.60
(+12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.52 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.41
Bull Case
$45.03
(+108%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 16.0
Base Case
$40.94
(+89%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 14.5
Bear Case
$13.92
(-36%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 24, 2026 1:32 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:32 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:32 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PGY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Tami Rosen
SELL
9720 shares
2026-04-17
Evangelos Perros
SELL
13004 shares
2026-04-01
Evangelos Perros
SELL
8425 shares
2026-03-12
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Advanced PGY Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PGY price and gamma walls.
