PGY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PGY - Pagaya Technologies Ltd. Class A Ordinary Shares
$19.97
-0.33 (-1.63%)
▼
5d:
-12.76%
30d:
-1.67%
90d:
+26.79%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Sep 8, 2026 at $22.25 · last confirmed Sep 8, 2026
Strength: 7.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: PGY is down 12.8% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: PGY is down 12.8% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$28.93
Based on 7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.96
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 4.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PGY is currently trading at $19.97, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $20.70 to $22.38. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 4.8) is in line with its historical norms (4.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 143.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PGY is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $19.88. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PGY scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.91 (+44.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PGY is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $19.88. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PGY scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.91 (+44.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$20.70 -
$22.38
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding PGY? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 44.8% below Wall St target ($28.91)
- WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$20.70 -
$22.38
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$19.88
Resistance Level
$23.68
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.82
Wall Street Target
$28.91
(+44.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
143.3%
Profit Margin
9.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.8 vs 4.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$19.85
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$19.73
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$19.61
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→5)
$19.95
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 10.7%)
$113.40
(+468%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.8, Growth: 10.7%)
$27.08
(+36%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.1, Growth: 10.7%)
$23.02
(+15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.40 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.41
Bull Case
$44.66
(+124%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 15.8
Base Case
$40.60
(+103%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 14.4
Bear Case
$13.80
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.8 to 4.9
Stabilization Target:
$20.32
(+1.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 6:41 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:41 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:41 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is PGY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Tami Rosen
SELL
9720 shares
2026-04-17
Evangelos Perros
SELL
13004 shares
2026-04-01
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Advanced PGY Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PGY price and gamma walls.
