PGY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PGY - Pagaya Technologies Ltd. Class A Ordinary Shares
$18.27
0.68 (3.87%)
▲
5d:
-0.38%
30d:
+16.0%
90d:
+46.39%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
14d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.1/10
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4 traders called PGY this week
83% bullish • 1 bearish
83% bullish • 1 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PGY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.2% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PGY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.2% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$26.92
Based on 9.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.71
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 4.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PGY is currently trading at $18.27, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.97 to $17.81. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 5.2) is in line with its historical norms (4.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PGY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $16.27. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: PGY has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.50 (+45.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PGY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $16.27. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: PGY has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.50 (+45.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$14.97 -
$17.81
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.9%)
- BULLISH: Trading 45.0% below Wall St target ($26.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$14.97 -
$17.81
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.33
Resistance Level
$16.27
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.17
Wall Street Target
$26.50
(+45.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
183.8%
Profit Margin
7.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.2% premium
PE vs Historical
5.2 vs 4.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$18.67
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$19.08
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$19.50
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→5)
PE COMPRESSION
$18.11
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 15.5%)
$118.46
(+548%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.2, Growth: 15.5%)
$28.12
(+54%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.4, Growth: 15.5%)
$23.90
(+31%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.71 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.12
Bull Case
$38.70
(+112%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 17.3
Base Case
$35.18
(+93%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 15.7
Bear Case
$11.96
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 15, 2026 1:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:59 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PGY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Tami Rosen
SELL
9720 shares
2026-04-17
Evangelos Perros
SELL
13004 shares
2026-04-01
Evangelos Perros
SELL
8425 shares
2026-03-12
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