SWK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SWK - Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.
$98.11
3.53 (3.73%)
▲
5d:
+4.18%
30d:
+6.76%
90d:
+24.93%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SWK shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.8% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SWK shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.8% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$129.33
Based on 9.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$80.30
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SWK is currently trading at $98.11, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $87.81 to $94.04. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 15.4) compared to its historical average (13.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SWK is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $98.13. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: SWK has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SWK is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $98.13. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: SWK has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$87.81 -
$94.04
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.7%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($96.91)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 5.8% growth expectation is conservative given 248% recent growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$87.81 -
$94.04
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$86.38
Resistance Level
$98.13
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.44
Wall Street Target
$96.91
(-1.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
247.8%
Profit Margin
4.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.8% premium
PE vs Historical
15.4 vs 13.0
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$103.80
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$109.82
(+12%)
3-Year Target
$116.19
(+18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$97.82
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 14.9%)
$199.66
(+104%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.4, Growth: 14.9%)
$148.72
(+52%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.0, Growth: 14.9%)
$125.21
(+28%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.12 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.09
Bull Case
$161.62
(+65%)
Analyst growth 55.3%, PE expands to 25.4
Base Case
$146.93
(+50%)
Market implied 55.3%, PE stable at 23.1
Bear Case
$64.31
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 6:24 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:24 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:24 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SWK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-10
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-05
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