KMT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KMT - Kennametal Inc.
$34.90
0.93 (2.74%)
â˛
5d:
-1.19%
30d:
+4.21%
90d:
-9.28%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
1d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: KMT is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -13.7% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: KMT is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -13.7% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$56.55
Based on 0.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$35.11
0.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KMT is currently trading at $34.90, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $33.48 to $35.29. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.2) compared to its historical average (14.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 13.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 83.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KMT is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $32.99, while resistance sits at $36.30.
Market Sentiment: KMT has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KMT is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $32.99, while resistance sits at $36.30.
Market Sentiment: KMT has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$33.48 -
$35.29
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
38.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($34.86)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$33.48 -
$35.29
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$32.99
Resistance Level
$36.30
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.15
Wall Street Target
$34.86
(-0.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
83.5%
Profit Margin
6.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-13.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.2 vs 14.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-13.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$31.41
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$28.27
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$25.44
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9â14)
$39.47
(+13%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: -2.2%)
$73.85
(+112%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.2, Growth: -2.2%)
$32.61
(-7%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.8, Growth: -2.2%)
$27.72
(-21%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.08 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.78
Bull Case
$74.73
(+114%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 21.0
Base Case
$67.94
(+95%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 19.1
Bear Case
$23.10
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.2 to 14.2
Stabilization Target:
$54.14
(+55.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+55.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 6:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:25 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:25 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KMT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Carlonda R Reilly
SELL
13410 shares
2026-03-09
John Wayne Witt
SELL
5060 shares
2026-02-19
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