KMT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KMT - Kennametal Inc.
$29.30
-0.66 (-2.20%)
▼
5d:
-7.89%
30d:
-16.83%
90d:
-18.79%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: KMT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: KMT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$54.96
Based on 0.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$34.12
14.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KMT is currently trading at $29.30, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $30.88 to $35.01. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.7) compared to its historical average (13.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 17.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 928.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KMT is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $29.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: KMT scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $33.00 (+12.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KMT is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $29.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: KMT scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $33.00 (+12.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$30.88 -
$35.01
Company Quality Score
36/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (33/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($33.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 36/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$30.88 -
$35.01
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$29.01
Resistance Level
$31.95
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 24, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.69
Wall Street Target
$33.00
(+12.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
42.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
928.7%
Profit Margin
14.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-17.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.7 vs 13.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-17.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$26.37
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$23.73
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$21.36
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→14)
$38.35
(+31%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: -2.2%)
$71.43
(+144%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.7, Growth: -2.2%)
$27.38
(-7%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.5, Growth: -2.2%)
$23.27
(-21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 6.78 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.42
Bull Case
$28.43
(-3%)
Analyst growth -13.7%, PE expands to 7.5
Base Case
$25.84
(-12%)
Market implied -13.7%, PE stable at 6.8
Bear Case
$20.37
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.7 to 13.8
Stabilization Target:
$52.61
(+79.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+79.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 24, 2026 11:03 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:03 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:03 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is KMT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Carlonda R Reilly
SELL
13410 shares
2026-03-09
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