TKR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TKR - The Timken Company
$131.82
-0.08 (-0.06%)
▼
5d:
+3.66%
30d:
+23.06%
90d:
+24.84%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TKR trades at premium valuation expecting 5.1% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: TKR trades at premium valuation expecting 5.1% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$190.68
Based on 11.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$118.40
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TKR is currently trading at $131.82, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $109.80 to $125.17. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 18.2) compared to its historical average (15.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TKR is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $133.13. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TKR has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TKR is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $133.13. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TKR has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$109.80 -
$125.17
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
51.4%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+5.3% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($135.64)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 5.1% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$109.80 -
$125.17
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$110.26
Resistance Level
$133.14
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.20
Wall Street Target
$135.64
(+2.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
26.1%
Profit Margin
6.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.1% premium
PE vs Historical
18.2 vs 15.7
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$138.54
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$145.61
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$153.03
(+16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$132.03
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 18.0%)
$260.75
(+98%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.2, Growth: 18.0%)
$216.58
(+64%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.5, Growth: 18.0%)
$184.09
(+40%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (29x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.90 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.40
Bull Case
$229.22
(+81%)
Analyst growth 63.9%, PE expands to 31.8
Base Case
$208.38
(+64%)
Market implied 63.9%, PE stable at 28.9
Bear Case
$86.47
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 03, 2026 7:27 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:27 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:27 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TKR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Richard G Kyle
SELL
19636 shares
2026-02-20
Richard G Kyle
SELL
10000 shares
2026-02-19
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