TKR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TKR - The Timken Company
$141.75
4.20 (3.05%)
▲
5d:
+0.46%
30d:
+1.86%
90d:
+30.05%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
TODAY
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TKR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.8% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TKR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.8% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$197.94
Based on 10.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$122.91
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TKR is currently trading at $141.75, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $136.65 to $142.37. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 19.6) compared to its historical average (16.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TKR is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $143.18. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TKR is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $143.18. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$136.65 -
$142.37
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
64.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.1%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($144.91)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 5.8% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$136.65 -
$142.37
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$131.22
Resistance Level
$143.18
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.60
Wall Street Target
$144.91
(+2.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
26.1%
Profit Margin
6.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.8% premium
PE vs Historical
19.6 vs 16.5
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$149.97
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$158.67
(+12%)
3-Year Target
$167.87
(+18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$141.35
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 17.5%)
$243.17
(+72%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.6, Growth: 17.5%)
$229.87
(+62%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.5, Growth: 17.5%)
$193.55
(+37%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 31.86 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.15
Bull Case
$253.51
(+84%)
Analyst growth 74.3%, PE expands to 35.1
Base Case
$230.46
(+68%)
Market implied 74.3%, PE stable at 31.9
Bear Case
$89.91
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 5:47 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:47 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:47 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TKR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Richard G Kyle
SELL
19636 shares
2026-02-20
Richard G Kyle
SELL
10000 shares
2026-02-19
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