TKR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TKR - The Timken Company
$138.34
1.03 (0.75%)
▲
5d:
-2.82%
30d:
+4.49%
90d:
+29.59%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
14d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TKR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TKR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$194.57
Based on 10.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$120.82
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TKR is currently trading at $138.34, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $135.75 to $142.28. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 19.2) compared to its historical average (16.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TKR is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $139.43. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TKR is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $139.43. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$135.75 -
$142.28
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
66.7%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($138.73)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 5.6% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$135.75 -
$142.28
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$123.73
Resistance Level
$139.43
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.18
Wall Street Target
$138.73
(+0.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
26.1%
Profit Margin
6.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.6% premium
PE vs Historical
19.2 vs 16.3
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$146.09
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$154.27
(+12%)
3-Year Target
$162.91
(+18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$138.46
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 17.4%)
$254.11
(+84%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.2, Growth: 17.4%)
$223.75
(+62%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.3, Growth: 17.4%)
$190.17
(+38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (31x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 31.28 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.39
Bull Case
$248.19
(+79%)
Analyst growth 64.3%, PE expands to 34.4
Base Case
$225.63
(+63%)
Market implied 64.3%, PE stable at 31.3
Bear Case
$93.37
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 3:02 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:02 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:02 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TKR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Richard G Kyle
SELL
19636 shares
2026-02-20
Richard G Kyle
SELL
10000 shares
2026-02-19
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