VST Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VST - Vistra Corp.
$162.39
-4.87 (-2.91%)
▼
5d:
+5.78%
30d:
+8.93%
90d:
+7.34%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 10.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: VST shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: VST shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$278.02
Based on 9.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$172.63
5.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VST is currently trading at $162.39, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $143.63 to $161.37. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.1) is in line with its historical norms (16.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VST is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $165.02. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: VST has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $223.00 (+33.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VST is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $165.02. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: VST has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $223.00 (+33.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$143.63 -
$161.37
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 33.3% below Wall St target ($223.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$143.63 -
$161.37
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$141.54
Resistance Level
$165.02
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.06
Wall Street Target
$223.00
(+33.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
43.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-52.3%
Profit Margin
11.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.1 vs 16.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$163.08
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$159.00
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$155.03
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→16)
$166.79
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 14.3%)
$360.85
(+116%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.1, Growth: 14.3%)
$249.47
(+49%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.8, Growth: 14.3%)
$212.05
(+27%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 27.67 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.98
Bull Case
$338.11
(+102%)
Analyst growth 85.8%, PE expands to 30.4
Base Case
$307.38
(+84%)
Market implied 85.8%, PE stable at 27.7
Bear Case
$112.52
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.1 to 16.2
Stabilization Target:
$179.96
(+7.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 4:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:25 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:25 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
2
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Stephanie Zapata Moore
SELL
10000 shares
2026-03-09
Julia Letlow
BUY
2026-02-17
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-05
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