VST Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VST - Vistra Corp.
$158.12
-0.74 (-0.47%)
▼
5d:
+0.57%
30d:
+14.13%
90d:
+2.19%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 07, 2026
24d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.4/10
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1 traders called VST this week
0% bullish • 1 bearish
0% bullish • 1 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: VST shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: VST shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$274.94
Based on 8.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$170.71
7.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VST is currently trading at $158.12, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $148.92 to $163.00. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.0) compared to its historical average (16.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VST is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $141.54, while resistance sits at $165.02.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $222.89 (+41.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VST is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $141.54, while resistance sits at $165.02.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $222.89 (+41.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$148.92 -
$163.00
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 41.0% below Wall St target ($222.89)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$148.92 -
$163.00
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$141.54
Resistance Level
$165.02
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.02
Wall Street Target
$222.89
(+41.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
43.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-52.3%
Profit Margin
11.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.0 vs 16.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$151.16
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$144.51
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$138.15
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→16)
$158.66
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 13.4%)
$357.79
(+126%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.0, Growth: 13.4%)
$230.30
(+46%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.9, Growth: 13.4%)
$195.75
(+24%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.61 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.97
Bull Case
$330.15
(+109%)
Analyst growth 88.9%, PE expands to 29.3
Base Case
$300.13
(+90%)
Market implied 88.9%, PE stable at 26.6
Bear Case
$108.02
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.0 to 16.1
Stabilization Target:
$181.59
(+14.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 6:15 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:15 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:15 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
2
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Stephanie Zapata Moore
SELL
10000 shares
2026-03-09
Julia Letlow
BUY
2026-02-17
Ro Khanna
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2026-02-05
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