AQN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AQN - Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp
$5.91
0.05 (0.85%)
▲
5d:
-1.5%
30d:
+0.0%
90d:
-5.59%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 08, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AQN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AQN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$9.65
Based on 8.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.99
1.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AQN is currently trading at $5.91, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.83 to $5.97. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.7) is in line with its historical norms (16.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AQN is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $5.83. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.80 (+15.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AQN is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $5.83. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.80 (+15.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$5.83 -
$5.97
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($6.80)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$5.83 -
$5.97
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5.83
Resistance Level
$6.07
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.71
Wall Street Target
$6.80
(+15.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-10.7%
Profit Margin
6.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.7 vs 16.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.71
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$5.53
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$5.34
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→16)
$5.92
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 12.2%)
$12.37
(+109%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.7, Growth: 12.2%)
$8.36
(+41%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.5, Growth: 12.2%)
$7.10
(+20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.63 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.26
Bull Case
$10.00
(+69%)
Analyst growth 54.5%, PE expands to 24.9
Base Case
$9.09
(+54%)
Market implied 54.5%, PE stable at 22.6
Bear Case
$4.00
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.7 to 16.3
Stabilization Target:
$6.55
(+10.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 9:12 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:12 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:12 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AQN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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