AQN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AQN - Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp
$5.84
-0.14 (-2.34%)
▼
5d:
-4.26%
30d:
+7.16%
90d:
-7.01%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 14, 2026
11d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AQN trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -3.4% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AQN trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -3.4% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$10.15
Based on 9.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.30
7.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AQN is currently trading at $5.84, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.66 to $6.00. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.4) compared to its historical average (16.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AQN is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $5.74. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AQN has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.75 (+15.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AQN is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $5.74. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AQN has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.75 (+15.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$5.66 -
$6.00
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($6.75)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$5.66 -
$6.00
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5.74
Resistance Level
$6.19
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.38
Wall Street Target
$6.75
(+15.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-10.7%
Profit Margin
6.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.4 vs 16.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.64
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$5.45
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$5.26
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→16)
$5.86
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 14.8%)
$12.74
(+118%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.4, Growth: 14.8%)
$8.84
(+51%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.2, Growth: 14.8%)
$7.51
(+29%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.26
Bull Case
$10.28
(+76%)
Analyst growth 56.2%, PE expands to 25.3
Base Case
$9.34
(+60%)
Market implied 56.2%, PE stable at 23.0
Bear Case
$4.07
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.4 to 16.0
Stabilization Target:
$6.50
(+11.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 6:17 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:17 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:17 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AQN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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