Target Price Playground
ADBE
$250.23
🟢
ADBE IV: 43.9% — LOW
(-32.2% vs 30d avg of 64.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $220 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $250 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $17.28 · Δ -0.46
SHORT PUT · $230 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $8.84 · Δ -0.28
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If ADBE hits $220 by Dec 18: the bear put spread returns +$1,156 (137.0%) on $844 risked, vs $-3,023 (-12.1%) for 100 shares on $25,023. Options give 11.3× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADBE is at $220. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if ADBE hits $220 by Dec 18
+$1,156
+137.0% on $844 risked
Max Profit
+$1,156
If the stock ≤ $230 at expiry
Max Loss
−$844
Net debit
Break-even
$241.56
-3.46% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
45%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-17.27 / -2.47 / 6.15
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| ADBE Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $200 (-20%) | +$898 | +$984 | +$1,096 | +$1,156 |
| $213 (-15%) | +$713 | +$800 | +$951 | +$1,156 |
| $220 (-12%) ← target | +$583 | +$656 | +$799 | +$1,156 |
| $225 (-10%) | +$482 | +$540 | +$659 | +$1,156 |
| $238 (-5%) | +$229 | +$235 | +$250 | +$384 |
| $245 (-2%) | +$78 | +$50 | -$6 | -$367 |
| $250 (0%) ← spot | -$19 | -$67 | -$166 | -$844 |
| $255 (+2%) | -$112 | -$177 | -$309 | -$844 |
| $263 (+5%) | -$240 | -$326 | -$487 | -$844 |
| $275 (+10%) | -$423 | -$524 | -$684 | -$844 |
| $288 (+15%) | -$562 | -$659 | -$782 | -$844 |
| $300 (+20%) | -$663 | -$744 | -$823 | -$844 |
Uses ADBE's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.