Target Price Playground

Templates Custom Builder LEAP Simulator
ADBE
$250.23
🟢
ADBE IV: 43.9% — LOW (-32.2% vs 30d avg of 64.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection If price hits $265 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest Coming soon
Signal Backtest Coming soon

📋 Strategy

Long Stock Long Call Long Put Bull Call Spread Bear Put Spread Covered Call Protective Put Cash-Secured Put Diagonal Put Spread Long Straddle
Sell OTM put for premium; get assigned if price drops.

🎯 Target

48d from today

⚙️ Legs

SHORT PUT · $230 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $8.84 · Δ -0.28
P&L at Expiry Now $250 Target $265 $175 $250 $325
Stock (100 sh) Cash-Secured Put Now Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target

If ADBE hits $265 by Dec 18: the cash-secured put returns +$884 (4.0%) on $-884 credit (max loss $22,116), vs +$1,477 (5.9%) for 100 shares on $25,023. Options give 0.7× capital efficiency.

📅 Expiry

Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADBE is at $265. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.

📊 Projected Return

P&L if ADBE hits $265 by Dec 18
+$884
+4.0% on $22,116 max loss
Max Profit
+$884
If the stock ≥ $230 at expiry
Max Loss
−$22,116
If stock → $0 after assignment
Break-even
$221.16
-11.62% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
71%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
28.37 / 15.17 / -29.87
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
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📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)

Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.

📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates

ADBE Price Today Nov 16 Dec 2 Dec 18 (exp)
$200 (-20%) -$2,358 -$2,231 -$2,115 -$2,098
$213 (-15%) -$1,470 -$1,273 -$1,039 -$846
$225 (-10%) -$751 -$511 -$194 +$405
$238 (-5%) -$202 +$43 +$366 +$884
$245 (-2%) +$51 +$285 +$575 +$884
$250 (0%) ← spot +$192 +$412 +$671 +$884
$255 (+2%) +$313 +$516 +$742 +$884
$265 (+6%) ← target +$498 +$665 +$823 +$884
$275 (+10%) +$634 +$762 +$861 +$884
$288 (+15%) +$742 +$827 +$878 +$884
$300 (+20%) +$805 +$859 +$883 +$884
Uses ADBE's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.