Target Price Playground
ADBE
$250.23
🟢
ADBE IV: 43.9% — LOW
(-32.2% vs 30d avg of 64.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $240 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $250 · Jan '27
Qty 1 · Premium $20.28 · Δ -0.45
SHORT PUT · $240 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $12.8 · Δ -0.37
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If ADBE hits $240 by Dec 18: the diagonal put spread returns +$996 (133.1%) on $748 risked, vs $-1,023 (-4.1%) for 100 shares on $25,023. Options give 32.5× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADBE is at $240. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if ADBE hits $240 by Dec 18
+$996
+133.1% on $748 risked
Max Profit
+$954
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
−$725
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$261.96
+4.69% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
80%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-8.22 / 3.52 / 9.93
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| ADBE Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $200 (-20%) | +$255 | +$272 | +$268 | +$207 |
| $213 (-15%) | +$262 | +$307 | +$352 | +$299 |
| $225 (-10%) | +$237 | +$305 | +$409 | +$503 |
| $240 (-4%) ← target | +$161 | +$232 | +$360 | +$963 |
| $245 (-2%) | +$123 | +$188 | +$304 | +$670 |
| $250 (0%) ← spot | +$82 | +$138 | +$236 | +$423 |
| $255 (+2%) | +$37 | +$82 | +$156 | +$208 |
| $263 (+5%) | -$35 | -$9 | +$22 | -$57 |
| $275 (+10%) | -$161 | -$168 | -$202 | -$368 |
| $288 (+15%) | -$283 | -$317 | -$391 | -$552 |
| $300 (+20%) | -$392 | -$442 | -$529 | -$653 |
Uses ADBE's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.