Target Price Playground
ADBE
$250.23
🟢
ADBE IV: 43.9% — LOW
(-32.2% vs 30d avg of 64.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $280 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $250 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $18.8 · Δ 0.55
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If ADBE hits $280 by Dec 18: the long call returns +$1,120 (59.6%) on $1,880 risked, vs +$2,977 (11.9%) for 100 shares on $25,023. Options give 5.0× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADBE is at $280. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if ADBE hits $280 by Dec 18
+$1,120
+59.6% on $1,880 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
−$1,880
Premium paid
Break-even
$268.80
+7.42% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
46%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
54.73 / -20.26 / 36.01
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| ADBE Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $200 (-20%) | -$1,731 | -$1,821 | -$1,874 | -$1,880 |
| $213 (-15%) | -$1,552 | -$1,710 | -$1,842 | -$1,880 |
| $225 (-10%) | -$1,250 | -$1,482 | -$1,729 | -$1,880 |
| $238 (-5%) | -$801 | -$1,090 | -$1,446 | -$1,880 |
| $245 (-2%) | -$454 | -$765 | -$1,161 | -$1,880 |
| $250 (0%) ← spot | -$192 | -$510 | -$917 | -$1,857 |
| $255 (+2%) | +$94 | -$224 | -$630 | -$1,357 |
| $263 (+5%) | +$568 | +$258 | -$126 | -$606 |
| $275 (+10%) | +$1,463 | +$1,186 | +$877 | +$645 |
| $280 (+12%) ← target | +$1,833 | +$1,572 | +$1,296 | +$1,120 |
| $288 (+15%) | +$2,467 | +$2,236 | +$2,013 | +$1,896 |
| $300 (+20%) | +$3,555 | +$3,372 | +$3,219 | +$3,148 |
Uses ADBE's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.