Target Price Playground
ADBE
$250.23
🟢
ADBE IV: 43.9% — LOW
(-32.2% vs 30d avg of 64.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $220 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $250 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $17.28 · Δ -0.46
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If ADBE hits $220 by Dec 18: the long put returns +$1,272 (73.6%) on $1,728 risked, vs $-3,023 (-12.1%) for 100 shares on $25,023. Options give 6.1× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADBE is at $220. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if ADBE hits $220 by Dec 18
+$1,272
+73.6% on $1,728 risked
Max Profit
+$23,272
If stock → $0
Max Loss
−$1,728
Premium paid
Break-even
$232.72
-7.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
45%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-45.64 / -17.64 / 36.02
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| ADBE Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $200 (-20%) | +$3,255 | +$3,215 | +$3,211 | +$3,254 |
| $213 (-15%) | +$2,183 | +$2,074 | +$1,990 | +$2,002 |
| $220 (-12%) ← target | +$1,612 | +$1,459 | +$1,311 | +$1,272 |
| $225 (-10%) | +$1,233 | +$1,051 | +$852 | +$751 |
| $238 (-5%) | +$432 | +$191 | -$116 | -$500 |
| $245 (-2%) | +$27 | -$234 | -$581 | -$1,251 |
| $250 (0%) ← spot | -$211 | -$479 | -$837 | -$1,728 |
| $255 (+2%) | -$424 | -$694 | -$1,050 | -$1,728 |
| $263 (+5%) | -$701 | -$963 | -$1,297 | -$1,728 |
| $275 (+10%) | -$1,057 | -$1,286 | -$1,546 | -$1,728 |
| $288 (+15%) | -$1,304 | -$1,486 | -$1,660 | -$1,728 |
| $300 (+20%) | -$1,468 | -$1,603 | -$1,706 | -$1,728 |
Uses ADBE's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.