Target Price Playground
ADBE
$250.23
๐ข
ADBE IV: 43.9% โ LOW
(-32.2% vs 30d avg of 64.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $280 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy shares and hold. Unlimited upside, full downside.
๐ฏ Target
48d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $250.23 ยท ฮ 1.00
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Stock
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADBE hits $280 by Dec 18: the long stock returns +$2,977 (11.9%) on $25,023 risked, vs $ (None%) for 100 shares on $.
๐ Expiry
Stock-only position โ no expiry. Target date is Dec 18.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADBE hits $280 by Dec 18
+$2,977
+11.9% on $25,023 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$25,023
If stock โ $0
Break-even
$250.23
+0.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
46%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
100.0 / 0.0 / 0.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADBE Price | Today | Nov 30 | Dec 30 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $200 (-20%) | -$5,005 | -$5,005 | -$5,005 |
| $213 (-15%) | -$3,753 | -$3,753 | -$3,753 |
| $225 (-10%) | -$2,502 | -$2,502 | -$2,502 |
| $238 (-5%) | -$1,251 | -$1,251 | -$1,251 |
| $245 (-2%) | -$500 | -$500 | -$500 |
| $250 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$0 | +$0 |
| $255 (+2%) | +$500 | +$500 | +$500 |
| $263 (+5%) | +$1,251 | +$1,251 | +$1,251 |
| $275 (+10%) | +$2,502 | +$2,502 | +$2,502 |
| $280 (+12%) โ target | +$2,977 | +$2,977 | +$2,977 |
| $288 (+15%) | +$3,753 | +$3,753 | +$3,753 |
| $300 (+20%) | +$5,005 | +$5,005 | +$5,005 |
Uses ADBE's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.