Target Price Playground
ADBE
$250.23
🟢
ADBE IV: 43.9% — LOW
(-32.2% vs 30d avg of 64.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $275 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $250.23 · Δ 1.00
LONG PUT · $240 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $12.8 · Δ -0.37
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If ADBE hits $275 by Dec 18: the protective put returns +$1,197 (4.6%) on $26,303 risked, vs +$2,477 (9.9%) for 100 shares on $25,023. Options give 0.5× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADBE is at $275. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if ADBE hits $275 by Dec 18
+$1,197
+4.6% on $26,303 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
−$2,303
Put floors you at $240
Break-even
$263.03
+5.12% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
54%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
63.38 / -16.12 / 35.07
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| ADBE Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $200 (-20%) | -$2,198 | -$2,280 | -$2,329 | -$2,303 |
| $213 (-15%) | -$1,938 | -$2,093 | -$2,250 | -$2,303 |
| $225 (-10%) | -$1,530 | -$1,750 | -$2,022 | -$2,303 |
| $238 (-5%) | -$959 | -$1,213 | -$1,553 | -$2,303 |
| $245 (-2%) | -$537 | -$795 | -$1,138 | -$1,780 |
| $250 (0%) ← spot | -$225 | -$479 | -$808 | -$1,280 |
| $255 (+2%) | +$109 | -$136 | -$442 | -$780 |
| $263 (+5%) | +$652 | +$427 | +$167 | -$29 |
| $275 (+10%) ← target | +$1,625 | +$1,445 | +$1,269 | +$1,197 |
| $288 (+15%) | +$2,728 | +$2,597 | +$2,495 | +$2,473 |
| $300 (+20%) | +$3,873 | +$3,784 | +$3,731 | +$3,725 |
Uses ADBE's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.