Target Price Playground
ADBE
$250.23
🟢
ADBE IV: 43.9% — LOW
(-32.2% vs 30d avg of 64.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $290 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $250 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $18.8 · Δ 0.55
LONG PUT · $250 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $17.28 · Δ -0.46
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If ADBE hits $290 by Dec 18: the long straddle returns +$392 (10.9%) on $3,608 risked, vs +$3,977 (15.9%) for 100 shares on $25,023. Options give 0.7× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADBE is at $290. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if ADBE hits $290 by Dec 18
+$392
+10.9% on $3,608 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
−$3,608
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$286.08
+14.33% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
32%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
9.1 / -37.9 / 72.03
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| ADBE Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $200 (-20%) | +$1,524 | +$1,394 | +$1,337 | +$1,374 |
| $213 (-15%) | +$631 | +$364 | +$148 | +$122 |
| $225 (-10%) | -$17 | -$431 | -$877 | -$1,129 |
| $238 (-5%) | -$369 | -$899 | -$1,562 | -$2,380 |
| $245 (-2%) | -$427 | -$999 | -$1,741 | -$3,131 |
| $250 (0%) ← spot | -$403 | -$988 | -$1,754 | -$3,585 |
| $255 (+2%) | -$330 | -$918 | -$1,681 | -$3,085 |
| $263 (+5%) | -$133 | -$705 | -$1,422 | -$2,334 |
| $275 (+10%) | +$406 | -$100 | -$669 | -$1,083 |
| $290 (+16%) ← target | +$1,318 | +$921 | +$553 | +$392 |
| $300 (+20%) | +$2,087 | +$1,769 | +$1,513 | +$1,420 |
Uses ADBE's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.