Target Price Playground
ADBE
$250.23
🟢
ADBE IV: 43.4% — LOW
(-33.0% vs 30d avg of 64.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $270 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $250.23 · Δ 1.00
SHORT CALL · $270 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $11.0 · Δ 0.38
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If ADBE hits $270 by Dec 18: the covered call returns +$3,077 (12.9%) on $23,923 risked, vs +$1,977 (7.9%) for 100 shares on $25,023. Options give 1.6× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADBE is at $270. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if ADBE hits $270 by Dec 18
+$3,077
+12.9% on $23,923 risked
Max Profit
+$3,077
If the stock ≥ $270 at expiry
Max Loss
−$23,923
If stock → $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$239.23
-4.4% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
62%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
61.88 / 19.0 / -33.14
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| ADBE Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $200 (-20%) | -$3,956 | -$3,918 | -$3,905 | -$3,905 |
| $213 (-15%) | -$2,782 | -$2,700 | -$2,657 | -$2,653 |
| $225 (-10%) | -$1,681 | -$1,535 | -$1,426 | -$1,402 |
| $238 (-5%) | -$683 | -$463 | -$248 | -$151 |
| $245 (-2%) | -$144 | +$117 | +$405 | +$600 |
| $250 (0%) ← spot | +$187 | +$473 | +$807 | +$1,100 |
| $255 (+2%) | +$494 | +$802 | +$1,176 | +$1,600 |
| $263 (+5%) | +$911 | +$1,243 | +$1,662 | +$2,351 |
| $270 (+8%) ← target | +$1,265 | +$1,608 | +$2,048 | +$3,077 |
| $275 (+10%) | +$1,490 | +$1,835 | +$2,275 | +$3,077 |
| $288 (+15%) | +$1,933 | +$2,261 | +$2,656 | +$3,077 |
| $300 (+20%) | +$2,259 | +$2,549 | +$2,863 | +$3,077 |
Uses ADBE's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.