Target Price Playground
ADBE
$223.64
๐ข
ADBE IV: 44.5% โ LOW
(-33.4% vs 30d avg of 66.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $240 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
69d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $223.64 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $240 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.4 ยท ฮ 0.42
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADBE hits $240 by Sep 18: the covered call returns +$2,876 (13.6%) on $21,124 risked, vs +$1,636 (7.3%) for 100 shares on $22,364. Options give 1.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (69 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADBE is at $240. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADBE hits $240 by Sep 18
+$2,876
+13.6% on $21,124 risked
Max Profit
+$2,876
If the stock โฅ $240 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$21,124
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$211.24
-5.54% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
72%
IV-implied, 69d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
58.4 / 13.87 / -40.24
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADBE Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $179 (-20%) | -$3,390 | -$3,293 | -$3,239 | -$3,233 |
| $190 (-15%) | -$2,416 | -$2,258 | -$2,140 | -$2,115 |
| $201 (-10%) | -$1,518 | -$1,291 | -$1,079 | -$996 |
| $212 (-5%) | -$714 | -$420 | -$98 | +$122 |
| $219 (-2%) | -$281 | +$47 | +$434 | +$793 |
| $224 (0%) โ spot | -$13 | +$334 | +$758 | +$1,240 |
| $228 (+2%) | +$237 | +$601 | +$1,055 | +$1,687 |
| $235 (+5%) | +$582 | +$963 | +$1,450 | +$2,358 |
| $240 (+7%) โ target | +$822 | +$1,211 | +$1,711 | +$2,876 |
| $246 (+10%) | +$1,073 | +$1,466 | +$1,966 | +$2,876 |
| $257 (+15%) | +$1,470 | +$1,852 | +$2,320 | +$2,876 |
| $268 (+20%) | +$1,782 | +$2,138 | +$2,543 | +$2,876 |
Uses ADBE's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.