Target Price Playground
ADI
$420.55
🟢
ADI IV: 38.0% — LOW
(-48.3% vs 30d avg of 73.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $370 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $420 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $27.2 · Δ -0.45
SHORT PUT · $385 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $12.43 · Δ -0.26
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If ADI hits $370 by Dec 18: the bear put spread returns +$2,023 (137.0%) on $1,477 risked, vs $-5,055 (-12.0%) for 100 shares on $42,055. Options give 11.4× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADI is at $370. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if ADI hits $370 by Dec 18
+$2,023
+137.0% on $1,477 risked
Max Profit
+$2,023
If the stock ≤ $385 at expiry
Max Loss
−$1,477
Net debit
Break-even
$405.23
-3.64% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
49%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-19.48 / -3.6 / 13.32
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| ADI Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $336 (-20%) | +$1,489 | +$1,650 | +$1,875 | +$2,023 |
| $357 (-15%) | +$1,165 | +$1,317 | +$1,589 | +$2,023 |
| $370 (-12%) ← target | +$939 | +$1,062 | +$1,306 | +$2,023 |
| $379 (-10%) | +$777 | +$872 | +$1,071 | +$2,023 |
| $400 (-5%) | +$362 | +$371 | +$391 | +$571 |
| $412 (-2%) | +$116 | +$71 | -$26 | -$691 |
| $421 (0%) ← spot | -$41 | -$120 | -$286 | -$1,477 |
| $429 (+2%) | -$192 | -$300 | -$521 | -$1,477 |
| $442 (+5%) | -$402 | -$545 | -$818 | -$1,477 |
| $463 (+10%) | -$704 | -$876 | -$1,159 | -$1,477 |
| $484 (+15%) | -$940 | -$1,111 | -$1,342 | -$1,477 |
| $505 (+20%) | -$1,116 | -$1,266 | -$1,426 | -$1,477 |
Uses ADI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.