Target Price Playground
ADI
$420.55
🟢
ADI IV: 38.0% — LOW
(-48.3% vs 30d avg of 73.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $400 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $420 · Jan '27
Qty 1 · Premium $30.7 · Δ -0.45
SHORT PUT · $400 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $18.1 · Δ -0.34
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If ADI hits $400 by Dec 18: the diagonal put spread returns +$1,531 (121.5%) on $1,260 risked, vs $-2,055 (-4.9%) for 100 shares on $42,055. Options give 24.8× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADI is at $400. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if ADI hits $400 by Dec 18
+$1,531
+121.5% on $1,260 risked
Max Profit
+$1,478
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
−$1,252
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$429.84
+2.21% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
78%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-10.49 / 1.98 / 15.17
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| ADI Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $336 (-20%) | +$601 | +$661 | +$698 | +$628 |
| $357 (-15%) | +$542 | +$638 | +$756 | +$729 |
| $379 (-10%) | +$434 | +$548 | +$737 | +$1,002 |
| $400 (-5%) ← target | +$272 | +$375 | +$567 | +$1,583 |
| $412 (-2%) | +$163 | +$247 | +$403 | +$867 |
| $421 (0%) ← spot | +$82 | +$149 | +$268 | +$448 |
| $429 (+2%) | -$2 | +$45 | +$121 | +$91 |
| $442 (+5%) | -$131 | -$115 | -$108 | -$337 |
| $463 (+10%) | -$343 | -$378 | -$468 | -$806 |
| $484 (+15%) | -$540 | -$612 | -$757 | -$1,056 |
| $505 (+20%) | -$711 | -$805 | -$961 | -$1,176 |
Uses ADI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.