Target Price Playground
ADI
$420.55
๐ข
ADI IV: 38.0% โ LOW
(-48.3% vs 30d avg of 73.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $470 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy shares and hold. Unlimited upside, full downside.
๐ฏ Target
72d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $420.55 ยท ฮ 1.00
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Stock
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADI hits $470 by Dec 18: the long stock returns +$4,945 (11.8%) on $42,055 risked, vs $ (None%) for 100 shares on $.
๐ Expiry
Stock-only position โ no expiry. Target date is Dec 18.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADI hits $470 by Dec 18
+$4,945
+11.8% on $42,055 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$42,055
If stock โ $0
Break-even
$420.55
+0.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
50%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
100.0 / 0.0 / 0.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADI Price | Today | Nov 6 | Dec 6 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $336 (-20%) | -$8,411 | -$8,411 | -$8,411 |
| $357 (-15%) | -$6,308 | -$6,308 | -$6,308 |
| $379 (-10%) | -$4,205 | -$4,205 | -$4,205 |
| $400 (-5%) | -$2,103 | -$2,103 | -$2,103 |
| $412 (-2%) | -$841 | -$841 | -$841 |
| $421 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$0 | +$0 |
| $429 (+2%) | +$841 | +$841 | +$841 |
| $442 (+5%) | +$2,103 | +$2,103 | +$2,103 |
| $463 (+10%) | +$4,206 | +$4,206 | +$4,206 |
| $470 (+12%) โ target | +$4,945 | +$4,945 | +$4,945 |
| $484 (+15%) | +$6,308 | +$6,308 | +$6,308 |
| $505 (+20%) | +$8,411 | +$8,411 | +$8,411 |
Uses ADI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.