Target Price Playground
ADI
$420.55
🟢
ADI IV: 38.0% — LOW
(-48.3% vs 30d avg of 73.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $465 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $420.55 · Δ 1.00
LONG PUT · $400 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $18.1 · Δ -0.34
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If ADI hits $465 by Dec 18: the protective put returns +$2,635 (6.0%) on $43,865 risked, vs +$4,445 (10.6%) for 100 shares on $42,055. Options give 0.6× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADI is at $465. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if ADI hits $465 by Dec 18
+$2,635
+6.0% on $43,865 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
−$3,865
Put floors you at $400
Break-even
$438.65
+4.3% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
54%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
65.82 / -17.18 / 71.29
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| ADI Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $336 (-20%) | -$3,639 | -$3,801 | -$3,916 | -$3,865 |
| $357 (-15%) | -$3,117 | -$3,407 | -$3,722 | -$3,865 |
| $379 (-10%) | -$2,348 | -$2,739 | -$3,243 | -$3,865 |
| $400 (-5%) | -$1,317 | -$1,759 | -$2,356 | -$3,865 |
| $412 (-2%) | -$576 | -$1,021 | -$1,614 | -$2,651 |
| $421 (0%) ← spot | -$34 | -$472 | -$1,039 | -$1,810 |
| $429 (+2%) | +$543 | +$121 | -$407 | -$969 |
| $442 (+5%) | +$1,469 | +$1,081 | +$630 | +$293 |
| $465 (+11%) ← target | +$3,352 | +$3,046 | +$2,751 | +$2,635 |
| $484 (+15%) | +$4,970 | +$4,733 | +$4,543 | +$4,498 |
| $505 (+20%) | +$6,888 | +$6,721 | +$6,615 | +$6,601 |
Uses ADI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.