Target Price Playground
ADI
$420.55
🟢
ADI IV: 38.0% — LOW
(-48.3% vs 30d avg of 73.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $455 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $420.55 · Δ 1.00
SHORT CALL · $455 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $17.26 · Δ 0.38
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If ADI hits $455 by Dec 18: the covered call returns +$5,171 (12.8%) on $40,329 risked, vs +$3,445 (8.2%) for 100 shares on $42,055. Options give 1.6× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADI is at $455. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if ADI hits $455 by Dec 18
+$5,171
+12.8% on $40,329 risked
Max Profit
+$5,171
If the stock ≥ $455 at expiry
Max Loss
−$40,329
If stock → $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$403.29
-4.1% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
64%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
62.43 / 20.92 / -70.87
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| ADI Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $336 (-20%) | -$6,810 | -$6,721 | -$6,687 | -$6,685 |
| $357 (-15%) | -$4,871 | -$4,695 | -$4,593 | -$4,582 |
| $379 (-10%) | -$3,060 | -$2,768 | -$2,536 | -$2,479 |
| $400 (-5%) | -$1,426 | -$1,005 | -$583 | -$377 |
| $412 (-2%) | -$543 | -$50 | +$497 | +$885 |
| $421 (0%) ← spot | +$0 | +$536 | +$1,161 | +$1,726 |
| $429 (+2%) | +$507 | +$1,079 | +$1,774 | +$2,567 |
| $442 (+5%) | +$1,197 | +$1,811 | +$2,584 | +$3,829 |
| $455 (+8%) ← target | +$1,840 | +$2,478 | +$3,292 | +$5,171 |
| $463 (+10%) | +$2,165 | +$2,807 | +$3,623 | +$5,171 |
| $484 (+15%) | +$2,919 | +$3,541 | +$4,297 | +$5,171 |
| $505 (+20%) | +$3,487 | +$4,055 | +$4,686 | +$5,171 |
Uses ADI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.