Target Price Playground
ADI
$370.24
๐ข
ADI IV: 40.9% โ LOW
(-60.7% vs 30d avg of 104.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $400 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $370.24 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $400 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.03 ยท ฮ 0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADI hits $400 by Oct 16: the covered call returns +$4,179 (11.7%) on $35,821 risked, vs +$2,976 (8.0%) for 100 shares on $37,024. Options give 1.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADI is at $400. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADI hits $400 by Oct 16
+$4,179
+11.7% on $35,821 risked
Max Profit
+$4,179
If the stock โฅ $400 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$35,821
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$358.21
-3.25% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
62%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
66.59 / 18.05 / -52.93
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADI Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $296 (-20%) | -$6,275 | -$6,222 | -$6,203 | -$6,202 |
| $315 (-15%) | -$4,537 | -$4,422 | -$4,357 | -$4,351 |
| $333 (-10%) | -$2,904 | -$2,698 | -$2,534 | -$2,499 |
| $352 (-5%) | -$1,425 | -$1,113 | -$792 | -$648 |
| $363 (-2%) | -$626 | -$254 | +$176 | +$463 |
| $370 (0%) โ spot | -$136 | +$273 | +$771 | +$1,203 |
| $378 (+2%) | +$320 | +$760 | +$1,320 | +$1,943 |
| $389 (+5%) | +$939 | +$1,413 | +$2,042 | +$3,054 |
| $400 (+8%) โ target | +$1,486 | +$1,978 | +$2,640 | +$4,179 |
| $407 (+10%) | +$1,798 | +$2,292 | +$2,955 | +$4,179 |
| $426 (+15%) | +$2,454 | +$2,927 | +$3,527 | +$4,179 |
| $444 (+20%) | +$2,935 | +$3,357 | +$3,839 | +$4,179 |
Uses ADI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.