Target Price Playground
ADI
$429.10
๐ข
ADI IV: 47.0% โ LOW
(-46.6% vs 30d avg of 88.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $465 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $429.1 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $465 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $23.34 ยท ฮ 0.41
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADI hits $465 by Aug 21: the covered call returns +$5,924 (14.6%) on $40,576 risked, vs +$3,590 (8.4%) for 100 shares on $42,910. Options give 1.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADI is at $465. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADI hits $465 by Aug 21
+$5,924
+14.6% on $40,576 risked
Max Profit
+$5,924
If the stock โฅ $465 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$40,576
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$405.76
-5.44% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
69%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
59.46 / 29.18 / -69.66
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADI Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $343 (-20%) | -$6,550 | -$6,364 | -$6,260 | -$6,248 |
| $365 (-15%) | -$4,672 | -$4,373 | -$4,151 | -$4,102 |
| $386 (-10%) | -$2,937 | -$2,510 | -$2,115 | -$1,957 |
| $408 (-5%) | -$1,374 | -$820 | -$220 | +$188 |
| $421 (-2%) | -$526 | +$95 | +$815 | +$1,476 |
| $429 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$660 | +$1,452 | +$2,334 |
| $438 (+2%) | +$495 | +$1,187 | +$2,041 | +$3,192 |
| $451 (+5%) | +$1,178 | +$1,908 | +$2,831 | +$4,480 |
| $465 (+8%) โ target | +$1,861 | +$2,615 | +$3,578 | +$5,924 |
| $472 (+10%) | +$2,162 | +$2,921 | +$3,889 | +$5,924 |
| $493 (+15%) | +$2,965 | +$3,714 | +$4,640 | +$5,924 |
| $515 (+20%) | +$3,608 | +$4,313 | +$5,135 | +$5,924 |
Uses ADI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.