Target Price Playground
ADP
$293.84
🟢
ADP IV: 25.7% — LOW
(-57.7% vs 30d avg of 60.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $260 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $295 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $11.32 · Δ -0.47
SHORT PUT · $270 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $3.1 · Δ -0.19
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If ADP hits $260 by Dec 18: the bear put spread returns +$1,678 (204.1%) on $822 risked, vs $-3,384 (-11.5%) for 100 shares on $29,384. Options give 17.7× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADP is at $260. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if ADP hits $260 by Dec 18
+$1,678
+204.1% on $822 risked
Max Profit
+$1,678
If the stock ≤ $270 at expiry
Max Loss
−$822
Net debit
Break-even
$286.78
-2.4% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
25%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-28.65 / -2.15 / 15.65
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| ADP Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $235 (-20%) | +$1,570 | +$1,629 | +$1,669 | +$1,678 |
| $250 (-15%) | +$1,372 | +$1,481 | +$1,610 | +$1,678 |
| $260 (-12%) ← target | +$1,135 | +$1,252 | +$1,436 | +$1,678 |
| $264 (-10%) | +$1,007 | +$1,115 | +$1,300 | +$1,678 |
| $279 (-5%) | +$523 | +$551 | +$603 | +$763 |
| $288 (-2%) | +$224 | +$190 | +$118 | -$118 |
| $294 (0%) ← spot | +$37 | -$31 | -$167 | -$706 |
| $300 (+2%) | -$132 | -$225 | -$396 | -$822 |
| $309 (+5%) | -$347 | -$456 | -$626 | -$822 |
| $323 (+10%) | -$593 | -$685 | -$784 | -$822 |
| $338 (+15%) | -$725 | -$780 | -$817 | -$822 |
| $353 (+20%) | -$786 | -$811 | -$822 | -$822 |
Uses ADP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.