Target Price Playground

Templates Custom Builder LEAP Simulator
ADP
$293.84
🟢
ADP IV: 25.7% — LOW (-57.7% vs 30d avg of 60.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection If price hits $310 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest Coming soon
Signal Backtest Coming soon

📋 Strategy

Long Stock Long Call Long Put Bull Call Spread Bear Put Spread Covered Call Protective Put Cash-Secured Put Diagonal Put Spread Long Straddle
Sell OTM put for premium; get assigned if price drops.

🎯 Target

48d from today

⚙️ Legs

SHORT PUT · $270 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $3.1 · Δ -0.19
P&L at Expiry Now $294 Target $310 $206 $294 $382
Stock (100 sh) Cash-Secured Put Now Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target

If ADP hits $310 by Dec 18: the cash-secured put returns +$310 (1.2%) on $-310 credit (max loss $26,690), vs +$1,616 (5.5%) for 100 shares on $29,384. Options give 0.2× capital efficiency.

📅 Expiry

Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADP is at $310. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.

📊 Projected Return

P&L if ADP hits $310 by Dec 18
+$310
+1.2% on $26,690 max loss
Max Profit
+$310
If the stock ≥ $270 at expiry
Max Loss
−$26,690
If stock → $0 after assignment
Break-even
$266.90
-9.17% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
58%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
18.58 / 8.08 / -26.76
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
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📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)

Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.

📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates

ADP Price Today Nov 16 Dec 2 Dec 18 (exp)
$235 (-20%) -$3,128 -$3,117 -$3,134 -$3,183
$250 (-15%) -$1,905 -$1,813 -$1,725 -$1,714
$264 (-10%) -$953 -$794 -$583 -$244
$279 (-5%) -$319 -$156 +$52 +$310
$288 (-2%) -$78 +$60 +$213 +$310
$294 (0%) ← spot +$37 +$152 +$264 +$310
$300 (+2%) +$122 +$214 +$290 +$310
$310 (+5%) ← target +$217 +$273 +$306 +$310
$323 (+10%) +$275 +$300 +$310 +$310
$338 (+15%) +$300 +$308 +$310 +$310
$353 (+20%) +$307 +$310 +$310 +$310
Uses ADP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.