Target Price Playground
ADP
$293.84
🟢
ADP IV: 25.7% — LOW
(-57.7% vs 30d avg of 60.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $315 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $293.84 · Δ 1.00
SHORT CALL · $315 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $4.74 · Δ 0.28
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If ADP hits $315 by Dec 18: the covered call returns +$2,590 (9.0%) on $28,910 risked, vs +$2,116 (7.2%) for 100 shares on $29,384. Options give 1.2× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADP is at $315. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if ADP hits $315 by Dec 18
+$2,590
+9.0% on $28,910 risked
Max Profit
+$2,590
If the stock ≥ $315 at expiry
Max Loss
−$28,910
If stock → $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$289.10
-1.61% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
47%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
72.31 / 11.11 / -35.68
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| ADP Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $235 (-20%) | -$5,404 | -$5,403 | -$5,403 | -$5,403 |
| $250 (-15%) | -$3,945 | -$3,936 | -$3,934 | -$3,934 |
| $264 (-10%) | -$2,516 | -$2,479 | -$2,465 | -$2,464 |
| $279 (-5%) | -$1,174 | -$1,075 | -$1,007 | -$995 |
| $288 (-2%) | -$444 | -$295 | -$161 | -$114 |
| $294 (0%) ← spot | +$0 | +$184 | +$372 | +$474 |
| $300 (+2%) | +$405 | +$619 | +$863 | +$1,062 |
| $309 (+5%) | +$931 | +$1,178 | +$1,486 | +$1,943 |
| $315 (+7%) ← target | +$1,253 | +$1,512 | +$1,840 | +$2,590 |
| $323 (+10%) | +$1,586 | +$1,842 | +$2,158 | +$2,590 |
| $338 (+15%) | +$1,994 | +$2,209 | +$2,436 | +$2,590 |
| $353 (+20%) | +$2,218 | +$2,376 | +$2,512 | +$2,590 |
Uses ADP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.