Target Price Playground
ADP
$293.84
🟢
ADP IV: 25.7% — LOW
(-57.7% vs 30d avg of 60.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $280 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $295 · Jan '27
Qty 1 · Premium $13.8 · Δ -0.46
SHORT PUT · $280 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $5.1 · Δ -0.29
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If ADP hits $280 by Dec 18: the diagonal put spread returns +$870 (100.0%) on $870 risked, vs $-1,384 (-4.7%) for 100 shares on $29,384. Options give 21.3× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADP is at $280. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if ADP hits $280 by Dec 18
+$870
+100.0% on $870 risked
Max Profit
+$829
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
−$869
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$294.38
+0.18% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
63%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-16.65 / 2.21 / 17.33
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| ADP Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $235 (-20%) | +$528 | +$536 | +$533 | +$529 |
| $250 (-15%) | +$505 | +$540 | +$559 | +$540 |
| $264 (-10%) | +$417 | +$484 | +$570 | +$606 |
| $280 (-5%) ← target | +$225 | +$291 | +$403 | +$870 |
| $288 (-2%) | +$94 | +$139 | +$215 | +$343 |
| $294 (0%) ← spot | -$12 | +$13 | +$48 | +$25 |
| $300 (+2%) | -$119 | -$116 | -$123 | -$231 |
| $309 (+5%) | -$276 | -$302 | -$359 | -$508 |
| $323 (+10%) | -$501 | -$555 | -$638 | -$752 |
| $338 (+15%) | -$662 | -$716 | -$780 | -$839 |
| $353 (+20%) | -$763 | -$802 | -$839 | -$863 |
Uses ADP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.