Target Price Playground
ADP
$293.84
🟢
ADP IV: 25.7% — LOW
(-57.7% vs 30d avg of 60.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $330 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $295 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $11.9 · Δ 0.53
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If ADP hits $330 by Dec 18: the long call returns +$2,310 (194.1%) on $1,190 risked, vs +$3,616 (12.3%) for 100 shares on $29,384. Options give 15.8× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADP is at $330. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if ADP hits $330 by Dec 18
+$2,310
+194.1% on $1,190 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
−$1,190
Premium paid
Break-even
$306.90
+4.44% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
21%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
52.77 / -13.84 / 42.41
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| ADP Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $235 (-20%) | -$1,178 | -$1,188 | -$1,190 | -$1,190 |
| $250 (-15%) | -$1,130 | -$1,172 | -$1,189 | -$1,190 |
| $264 (-10%) | -$978 | -$1,088 | -$1,171 | -$1,190 |
| $279 (-5%) | -$627 | -$820 | -$1,034 | -$1,190 |
| $288 (-2%) | -$286 | -$515 | -$799 | -$1,190 |
| $294 (0%) ← spot | +$0 | -$241 | -$547 | -$1,190 |
| $300 (+2%) | +$334 | +$91 | -$214 | -$718 |
| $309 (+5%) | +$916 | +$688 | +$422 | +$163 |
| $323 (+10%) | +$2,070 | +$1,895 | +$1,728 | +$1,632 |
| $330 (+12%) ← target | +$2,660 | +$2,512 | +$2,384 | +$2,310 |
| $338 (+15%) | +$3,383 | +$3,262 | +$3,165 | +$3,102 |
| $353 (+20%) | +$4,784 | +$4,698 | +$4,630 | +$4,571 |
Uses ADP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.