Target Price Playground
ADP
$293.84
🟢
ADP IV: 25.7% — LOW
(-57.7% vs 30d avg of 60.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $260 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $295 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $11.32 · Δ -0.47
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If ADP hits $260 by Dec 18: the long put returns +$2,368 (209.2%) on $1,132 risked, vs $-3,384 (-11.5%) for 100 shares on $29,384. Options give 18.2× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADP is at $260. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if ADP hits $260 by Dec 18
+$2,368
+209.2% on $1,132 risked
Max Profit
+$28,368
If stock → $0
Max Loss
−$1,132
Premium paid
Break-even
$283.68
-3.46% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
25%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-47.23 / -10.23 / 42.41
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| ADP Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $235 (-20%) | +$4,699 | +$4,747 | +$4,803 | +$4,861 |
| $250 (-15%) | +$3,278 | +$3,294 | +$3,335 | +$3,392 |
| $260 (-12%) ← target | +$2,343 | +$2,316 | +$2,318 | +$2,368 |
| $264 (-10%) | +$1,960 | +$1,908 | +$1,883 | +$1,922 |
| $279 (-5%) | +$842 | +$707 | +$551 | +$453 |
| $288 (-2%) | +$302 | +$130 | -$95 | -$428 |
| $294 (0%) ← spot | +$0 | -$183 | -$431 | -$1,016 |
| $300 (+2%) | -$254 | -$439 | -$686 | -$1,132 |
| $309 (+5%) | -$553 | -$723 | -$931 | -$1,132 |
| $323 (+10%) | -$868 | -$985 | -$1,094 | -$1,132 |
| $338 (+15%) | -$1,025 | -$1,088 | -$1,127 | -$1,132 |
| $353 (+20%) | -$1,093 | -$1,121 | -$1,132 | -$1,132 |
Uses ADP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.