Target Price Playground
ADP
$293.84
🟢
ADP IV: 25.7% — LOW
(-57.7% vs 30d avg of 60.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $325 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $293.84 · Δ 1.00
LONG PUT · $280 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $5.1 · Δ -0.29
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If ADP hits $325 by Dec 18: the protective put returns +$2,606 (8.7%) on $29,894 risked, vs +$3,116 (10.6%) for 100 shares on $29,384. Options give 0.8× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADP is at $325. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if ADP hits $325 by Dec 18
+$2,606
+8.7% on $29,894 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
−$1,894
Put floors you at $280
Break-even
$298.94
+1.74% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
28%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
70.87 / -9.95 / 35.86
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| ADP Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $235 (-20%) | -$2,013 | -$1,991 | -$1,949 | -$1,894 |
| $250 (-15%) | -$1,877 | -$1,919 | -$1,935 | -$1,894 |
| $264 (-10%) | -$1,541 | -$1,666 | -$1,810 | -$1,894 |
| $279 (-5%) | -$916 | -$1,091 | -$1,326 | -$1,894 |
| $288 (-2%) | -$394 | -$565 | -$789 | -$1,098 |
| $294 (0%) ← spot | +$11 | -$147 | -$338 | -$510 |
| $300 (+2%) | +$456 | +$318 | +$167 | +$78 |
| $309 (+5%) | +$1,184 | +$1,080 | +$988 | +$959 |
| $325 (+11%) ← target | +$2,682 | +$2,634 | +$2,608 | +$2,606 |
| $338 (+15%) | +$3,927 | +$3,905 | +$3,898 | +$3,898 |
| $353 (+20%) | +$5,376 | +$5,368 | +$5,367 | +$5,367 |
Uses ADP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.