Target Price Playground
ADP
$293.84
🟢
ADP IV: 25.7% — LOW
(-57.7% vs 30d avg of 60.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $340 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $295 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $11.9 · Δ 0.53
LONG PUT · $295 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $11.32 · Δ -0.47
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If ADP hits $340 by Dec 18: the long straddle returns +$2,178 (93.8%) on $2,322 risked, vs +$4,616 (15.7%) for 100 shares on $29,384. Options give 6.0× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADP is at $340. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if ADP hits $340 by Dec 18
+$2,178
+93.8% on $2,322 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
−$2,322
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$271.78
-7.51% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
11%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
5.54 / -24.07 / 84.82
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| ADP Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $235 (-20%) | +$3,520 | +$3,559 | +$3,613 | +$3,671 |
| $250 (-15%) | +$2,147 | +$2,122 | +$2,146 | +$2,202 |
| $264 (-10%) | +$982 | +$821 | +$712 | +$732 |
| $279 (-5%) | +$215 | -$113 | -$483 | -$737 |
| $288 (-2%) | +$15 | -$385 | -$893 | -$1,618 |
| $294 (0%) ← spot | +$0 | -$424 | -$978 | -$2,206 |
| $300 (+2%) | +$79 | -$348 | -$900 | -$1,850 |
| $309 (+5%) | +$363 | -$34 | -$509 | -$969 |
| $323 (+10%) | +$1,201 | +$909 | +$635 | +$500 |
| $340 (+16%) ← target | +$2,539 | +$2,367 | +$2,243 | +$2,178 |
| $353 (+20%) | +$3,691 | +$3,577 | +$3,498 | +$3,439 |
Uses ADP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.