Target Price Playground
ADP
$241.92
๐ข
ADP IV: 27.5% โ LOW
(-55.9% vs 30d avg of 62.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $260 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
69d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $241.92 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $260 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $5.4 ยท ฮ 0.31
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADP hits $260 by Sep 18: the covered call returns +$2,348 (9.9%) on $23,652 risked, vs +$1,808 (7.5%) for 100 shares on $24,192. Options give 1.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (69 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADP is at $260. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADP hits $260 by Sep 18
+$2,348
+9.9% on $23,652 risked
Max Profit
+$2,348
If the stock โฅ $260 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$23,652
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$236.52
-2.23% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
56%
IV-implied, 69d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
68.9 / 7.7 / -38.04
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADP Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $194 (-20%) | -$4,312 | -$4,300 | -$4,298 | -$4,298 |
| $206 (-15%) | -$3,138 | -$3,102 | -$3,089 | -$3,089 |
| $218 (-10%) | -$2,019 | -$1,935 | -$1,885 | -$1,879 |
| $230 (-5%) | -$996 | -$844 | -$712 | -$670 |
| $237 (-2%) | -$446 | -$250 | -$50 | +$56 |
| $242 (0%) โ spot | -$111 | +$112 | +$359 | +$540 |
| $247 (+2%) | +$196 | +$443 | +$734 | +$1,024 |
| $254 (+5%) | +$605 | +$877 | +$1,216 | +$1,750 |
| $260 (+7%) โ target | +$895 | +$1,177 | +$1,534 | +$2,348 |
| $266 (+10%) | +$1,147 | +$1,430 | +$1,784 | +$2,348 |
| $278 (+15%) | +$1,529 | +$1,789 | +$2,087 | +$2,348 |
| $290 (+20%) | +$1,781 | +$1,999 | +$2,215 | +$2,348 |
Uses ADP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.