Target Price Playground
ADP
$293.84
🟢
ADP IV: 24.9% — LOW
(-59.0% vs 30d avg of 60.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $315 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $293.84 · Δ 1.00
SHORT CALL · $315 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $4.79 · Δ 0.28
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If ADP hits $315 by Dec 18: the covered call returns +$2,595 (9.0%) on $28,905 risked, vs +$2,116 (7.2%) for 100 shares on $29,384. Options give 1.2× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADP is at $315. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if ADP hits $315 by Dec 18
+$2,595
+9.0% on $28,905 risked
Max Profit
+$2,595
If the stock ≥ $315 at expiry
Max Loss
−$28,905
If stock → $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$289.05
-1.63% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
47%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
72.18 / 11.19 / -35.76
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| ADP Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $235 (-20%) | -$5,400 | -$5,398 | -$5,398 | -$5,398 |
| $250 (-15%) | -$3,940 | -$3,931 | -$3,929 | -$3,929 |
| $264 (-10%) | -$2,512 | -$2,474 | -$2,460 | -$2,459 |
| $279 (-5%) | -$1,172 | -$1,072 | -$1,002 | -$990 |
| $288 (-2%) | -$444 | -$293 | -$157 | -$109 |
| $294 (0%) ← spot | +$0 | +$185 | +$375 | +$479 |
| $300 (+2%) | +$404 | +$620 | +$865 | +$1,067 |
| $309 (+5%) | +$929 | +$1,178 | +$1,488 | +$1,948 |
| $315 (+7%) ← target | +$1,251 | +$1,511 | +$1,841 | +$2,595 |
| $323 (+10%) | +$1,585 | +$1,842 | +$2,160 | +$2,595 |
| $338 (+15%) | +$1,994 | +$2,210 | +$2,439 | +$2,595 |
| $353 (+20%) | +$2,220 | +$2,379 | +$2,516 | +$2,595 |
Uses ADP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.