Is AMAT stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, AMAT is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: AMAT is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.

What is the fair value of AMAT stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for AMAT to be between $505.44 and $576.95. The current price is $507.18.

What is the analyst price target for AMAT?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for AMAT is $633.34. This implies a potential upside of 24.9% from current levels.

AMAT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

AMAT - Applied Materials Inc

SEMICONDUCTORS & RELATED DEVICES

$507.18

-27.36 (-5.12%) ▼

5d: -5.93%

30d: -9.58%

90d: +15.12%

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

Protect Your AMAT Gains

Analysis Updated: Aug 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Aug 13, 2026 0d

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 14, 2026 at $508.02 · last confirmed Aug 14, 2026

Strength: 9.1/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AMAT is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$844.38

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$524.29

3.3% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: AMAT is currently trading at $507.18, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $505.44 to $576.95. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 29.2) is in line with its historical norms (28.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, AMAT is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $491.68, while resistance sits at $563.75. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.1% recently.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $633.34 (+24.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY LOW

Historical Trading Range $505.44 - $576.95

Company Quality Score 55/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 75.7%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (44/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.1%)
BULLISH: Trading 24.9% below Wall St target ($633.34)
NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (44/100) — watch for confirmation
CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-5.9%) - monitor closely

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $505.44 - $576.95

Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY LOW

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $491.68

Resistance Level $563.76

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Aug 14, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 29.24

Wall Street Target $633.34 (+24.9%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 11.4%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 33.5%

Profit Margin 29.3%

Valuation Premium vs History +0.5% premium

PE vs Historical 29.2 vs 28.8 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +0.5% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $509.72 (+1%)

2-Year Target $512.26 (+1%)

3-Year Target $514.83 (+2%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 29→29) PE COMPRESSION $507.04 (0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 29.2, Growth: 40.6%) $1409.70 (+178%)

Base: (SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 40.6%) $975.24 (+92%)

Bear: (PE: 17.2, Growth: 40.6%) $828.95 (+63%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (29x PE) as earnings recover.

Forward PE: 33.11 | Forward EPS (Implied): $15.32

Bull Case $612.42 (+21%)

Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 34.8

Base Case $507.18 (0%)

Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 33.1

Bear Case $387.99 (-24%)

Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 29.8

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: August 16, 2026 2:01 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:01 AM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

Sells

Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Ro Khanna BUY 2026-03-10

John Boozman SELL 2026-02-27

Judy Bruner SELL 2500 shares 2026-02-25

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