Applied Materials (AMAT) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMAT - Applied Materials Inc
$408.94
3.96 (0.98%)
▲
5d:
-8.44%
30d:
-13.44%
90d:
-27.34%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 12, 2026
20d
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Oct 9, 2026 at $500.73 · last confirmed Oct 19, 2026
Strength: 6.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AMAT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AMAT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$900.21
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$558.96
26.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMAT is currently trading at $408.94, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $425.36 to $514.43. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 22.1) compared to its historical average (28.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 42.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMAT is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $399.02. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 55/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $627.83 (+53.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMAT is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $399.02. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 55/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $627.83 (+53.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$425.36 -
$514.43
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AMAT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 53.5% below Wall St target ($627.83)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (55/100) — watch for confirmation
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-8.4%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$425.36 -
$514.43
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$399.03
Resistance Level
$523.34
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.12
Wall Street Target
$627.83
(+53.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
24.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
42.8%
Profit Margin
30.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.1 vs 28.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$377.45
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$348.39
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$321.56
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→28)
$410.03
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 44.6%)
$1237.00
(+203%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 44.6%)
$1110.83
(+172%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 44.6%)
$944.21
(+131%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (35x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 34.94 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.59
Bull Case
$710.72
(+74%)
Analyst growth 59.5%, PE expands to 38.4
Base Case
$646.11
(+58%)
Market implied 59.5%, PE stable at 34.9
Bear Case
$275.39
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 29.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.1 to 28.2
Stabilization Target:
$521.44
(+27.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+27.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 4:44 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:44 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:44 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMAT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced AMAT Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AMAT price and gamma walls.
