Is AMAT stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, AMAT is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AMAT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of AMAT stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for AMAT to be between $436.36 and $492.35. The current price is $529.30.

What is the analyst price target for AMAT?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for AMAT is $638.94. This implies a potential upside of 20.7% from current levels.

Applied Materials (AMAT) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

AMAT - Applied Materials Inc

SEMICONDUCTORS & RELATED DEVICES

$529.30

17.92 (3.50%) ▲

5d: +11.61%

30d: +19.79%

90d: -12.23%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Nov 12, 2026

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 1, 2026 at $523.79 · last confirmed Oct 1, 2026

Strength: 6.5/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AMAT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$898.68

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$558.01

5.1% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: AMAT is currently trading at $529.30, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $436.36 to $492.35. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 28.7) is in line with its historical norms (28.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, AMAT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $533.88. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.5% recently.

Market Sentiment: AMAT scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $638.94 (+20.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $436.36 - $492.35

Company Quality Score 43/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 29.5%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range (+7.5% above its trading range)
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.5%)
BULLISH: Trading 20.7% below Wall St target ($638.94)
NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $436.36 - $492.35

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $420.00

Resistance Level $533.88

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Oct 1, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 28.67

Wall Street Target $638.94 (+20.7%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 24.8%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 42.8%

Profit Margin 30.0%

Valuation Premium vs History +0.4% premium

PE vs Historical 28.7 vs 28.3 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +0.4% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $531.42 (+0%)

2-Year Target $533.54 (+1%)

3-Year Target $535.68 (+1%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 29→28) PE COMPRESSION $528.70 (0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 28.7, Growth: 44.3%) $1591.63 (+201%)

Base: (SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 44.3%) $1132.37 (+114%)

Bear: (PE: 17.3, Growth: 44.3%) $962.52 (+82%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (44x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (29x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 44.20 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.57

Bull Case $897.48 (+70%)

Analyst growth 59.5%, PE expands to 48.6

Base Case $815.89 (+54%)

Market implied 59.5%, PE stable at 44.2

Bear Case $347.74 (-34%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 37.6

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: October 02, 2026 1:07 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:07 AM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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