Applied Materials (AMAT) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$395.08
+22.55 (+6.05%)
▲
5d:
+6.95%
30d:
-14.9%
90d:
-26.09%
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Earnings: Nov 12, 2026
0d
Protect AMAT Gains
Updated Nov 11, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence (77%)
Quality Score
57/100
Position
FAIR
30-Day Fair Range
$361.11 – $479.22
Position: FAIR
Forward P/E & Valuation
21.3x
CHEAP
vs 27.7x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$620.78
+57.1% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$316.95 / $426.52
Trend: Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 HOLD: AMAT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Oct 30, 2026 at $389.81 · last confirmed Nov 6, 2026
Strength: 5.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$903.40
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$560.94
29.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMAT is currently trading at $395.08, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $361.11 to $479.22. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 21.3) compared to its historical average (27.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 42.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMAT is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $316.95, while resistance sits at $426.52. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 6.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 59/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $620.78 (+57.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMAT is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $316.95, while resistance sits at $426.52. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 6.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 59/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $620.78 (+57.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$361.11 -
$479.22
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$361.11 -
$479.22
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support Level
$316.95
Resistance Level
$426.52
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding AMAT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (59/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+6.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 57.1% below Wall St target ($620.78)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (59/100) — watch for confirmation
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.29
Wall Street Target
$620.78
(+57.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
24.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
42.8%
Profit Margin
30.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.3 vs 27.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$361.89
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$331.49
(-16%)
3-Year Target
$303.65
(-23%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→28)
$395.06
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.3, Growth: 45.0%)
$1205.52
(+205%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 45.0%)
$1124.51
(+185%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 45.0%)
$955.84
(+142%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 31.98 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.65
Bull Case
$652.72
(+65%)
Analyst growth 59.3%, PE expands to 35.2
Base Case
$593.38
(+50%)
Market implied 59.3%, PE stable at 32.0
Bear Case
$253.32
(-36%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.3 to 27.7
Stabilization Target:
$514.02
(+30.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+30.1%
Share AMAT Analysis
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (AMAT)
Bullish
6 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
2
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
4 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 10, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Bullish sentiment dominates on StockTwits with no bearish posts detected. A Yahoo Finance news article highlights four overlooked tech stocks paying dividends, including Applied Materials (AMAT), which has a modest yield and room for growth.
Key Retail Themes:
bullish sentiment on StockTwits
tech stocks paying dividends
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 8:52 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:52 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:52 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMAT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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