AMAT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMAT - Applied Materials Inc
$580.02
-60.16 (-9.40%)
▼
5d:
-0.98%
30d:
+35.72%
90d:
+60.32%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 13, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 9.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AMAT trades at premium valuation expecting 12.8% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: AMAT trades at premium valuation expecting 12.8% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$793.38
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$492.63
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMAT is currently trading at $580.01, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $426.62 to $558.24. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 39.3) compared to its historical average (27.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 12.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMAT is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $466.51, while resistance sits at $641.18. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 9.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: AMAT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $527.20. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMAT is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $466.51, while resistance sits at $641.18. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 9.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: AMAT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $527.20. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$426.62 -
$558.24
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
46.7%
Protect Your Profits
AMAT is technically overbought (RSI 78). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-9.4%)
- BEARISH: Trading 17.6% above Wall St target ($527.20)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 12.8% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$426.62 -
$558.24
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$466.51
Resistance Level
$641.18
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
39.28
Wall Street Target
$527.20
(-17.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
33.5%
Profit Margin
29.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+12.8% premium
PE vs Historical
39.3 vs 27.4
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+12.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$722.12
(+13%)
2-Year Target
$814.55
(+27%)
3-Year Target
$918.82
(+44%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 39→27)
PE COMPRESSION
$640.87
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 39.3, Growth: 33.2%)
$1512.55
(+136%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 33.2%)
$838.61
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 33.2%)
$712.82
(+11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (58x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (39x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 58.16 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.61
Bull Case
$1042.64
(+63%)
Analyst growth 53.6%, PE expands to 64.0
Base Case
$947.85
(+48%)
Market implied 53.6%, PE stable at 58.2
Bear Case
$419.64
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 49.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 10:48 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:48 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:48 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMAT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
5
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-10
John Boozman
SELL
2026-02-27
Judy Bruner
SELL
2500 shares
2026-02-25
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